Articles & Reports
The Week Ahead: When the Fed says jump, we say, how high?
How things have changed... as recently as April, bond markets were pricing in rate cuts by the Fed and the Bank of Canada before this year was out.
The FX Files – The Pain Game
Into the start: Core sovereign bond yields continue to track higher as markets digest last week’s central bank meetings and the ‘higher for longer’ message.
Post-Event Recap: Canada-UK Critical Minerals Investment Forum
CIBC Capital Markets' Gayatri Desai attended the Canada-UK Critical Mineral Investment Forum in London, UK and here are some of the key takeaways.
The Week Ahead: The least bad
Three major economies got fresh news on inflation in the last week and a half, but judging by how two-year yields reacted, the one with the worst news was the most blessed, and the one that looked the least bad is in the most trouble.
The FX Files – Higher for Longer Crude Prices
nto the start: Lots of attention on the commodities markets. Prompt WTI/Brent contracts are making fresh highs. Meanwhile, copper prices are on the defensive.
The Week Ahead: Ask not what your Fed will do for you
When “data dependance” is the mantra, as it is these days, there’s no point asking the Fed what they’re going to do for you on the interest rate front in 2024.
The FX Files – Dollars on the Defensive
Into the start: The USD starts the week off on the defensive. That’s largely due from the comments overnight from BoJ’s Ueda as well as the bounce in Chinese lending data which flagged an increase in household demand. The ZAR, AUD and JPY are at the top of the overnight league table.
The Week Ahead: Will oil energize inflation again?
Declining energy prices were a major factor in quelling Canadian and US headline inflation in the past year, but in the case of oil and gasoline, we’ve reached a turning point.
The Week Ahead: What would Fallstaff do?
If you’re up on your English lit, you’d know that it was Shakespeare’s character Fallstaff who advised that sometimes, discretion is the better part of valour...
In Focus: Counting heads in Canada — a conundrum
Even if by a miracle we start doing all the right things to increase housing supply, it will take years for that supply to come to the market. Meanwhile, demand is rising fast...
The FX Files – Updated Thoughts, JH Review
Into the start: The supportive backdrop for risk in the European session isn’t quite extending to NA equity futures thus far.
The FX Files – Importing Pain
Into the start: The cross-asset space is quiet for the most part. There’s a slight biddish tone to risk assets, but that’s about all that’s noteworthy.
The Week Ahead: Sahm's Club, Canadian Style
The week ahead’s quarterly GDP likely won’t raise any eyebrows, and should be enough to dampen recession fears for a while longer.
The FX Files – Exporting Disappointment
Into the start: Risk markets are firmer – though it does feel like disappointment from the PBoC’s decision is keeping some of that in check.