Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 59
27 min

Big conversations in the short-end

Ian is joined this week by Brenden Donaher, and the duo begin the episode by discussing Bank of Canada pricing for the upcoming meeting. Ian walks through various scenarios around the meeting, and Brenden provides his view on what that means for 2023 pricing. Brenden introduces the idea that the USD still remains the most important factor driving Canadian short-end pricing, despite some idiosyncratic developments which will occur next year. Ian spends some time walking through his outlook for rates in 2023, while Brenden provides his view on the year-end turn as well as the reasons why CDOR-OIS looks too cheap compared to spot pricing.

Ian PollickBrenden Donaher
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Brenden Donaher

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 58
26 min

Bank of Canada preview

Ian and Andrew discuss their expectations for the Bank of Canada interest rate decision next week. The duo walk through the reasons why the Bank will need to hike by another 75.0bps next week, and look at the most likely path of short-rates over the rest of the year. Ian talks about his favorite trades going into the release, noting that the forward expectations for BoC policy are too flat. Andrew spends some time detailing his expectation of forecast changes in the MPR, while the pair spend time talking about the impact that a weaker Canadian dollar has on both CPI and the stance of policy.

Ian PollickAndrew Grantham
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 57
23 min

Well, that’s a big HELOC payment...

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the Bank of Canada rate decision this past week. Jeremy discusses his view on terminal rates becoming more ‘bounded’, while Ian introduces the concept of a higher lower bound. Both have profound implications for the shape of the yield curve compared to prior cycles. The hosts take some time to walk through what trades worked well for them recently, and discuss the outlook for 5yr swap spreads. The pair finish the show by talking about why the Canadian dollar might just be the biggest swing factor when it comes a higher Canadian terminal rate.

Ian PollickJeremy Saunders
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 56
27 min

Highway to the danger zone

Ian and Andrew discuss the latest Canadian GDP numbers, noting how the deceleration in growth is coming from all the ‘wrong’ places when it comes to slowing inflation. Ian talks about how slowing growth impacts the yield curve, noting the differences between slowing from an above potential to a below potential rate. Andrew shares his view on the Bank of Canada rate decision next week, and provides the reasons why he thinks this is the final hike of the current cycle. The duo discuss what ‘higher for longer’ means, and the implications to how low policy rates can be cut in the next recession and why longer-term yields will be higher than most think.

Ian PollickAndrew Grantham
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 55
22 min

Outflows or opportunity?

Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the duo kick-off the episode discussing the Bank of Canada. With a 75 bps hike all but set in stone, the question is what should their next move be and should this matter given what is currently priced? Ian discusses his view on the ‘noncession/recession’ which will be challenging to trade, while Josh provides his view on what the move in rates means for credit markets. Josh discusses why credit outflows create opportunity for structural credit investors, and provides his view on sector trends in CAD IG. Ian finishes the show by given his outlook for rates and the curve.

Ian PollickJosh Kay
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Josh Kay

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 54
27 min

Steal your face

Ian is joined this week by Jeremy Saunders, and the duo start the episode by looking at the shape of the Canada and U.S. yield curves relative to what is priced for monetary policy in each region. Ian discusses why he views the recent bond market rally to be technical, while Jeremy provides his take on why it has been more fundamentally based. Over the balance of the episode the team discuss the outlook for swap spreads, the inflection point for a Fed pivot, and why CDOR cessation should be a much less uncertain transition compared to the U.S. experience with LIBOR.

Ian PollickJeremy Saunders
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders