Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 70
22 min

The Rates vs Credit Intergalactic Royal Rumble

Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the show begins with a lookback at the Bank of Canada rate decision this week. Ian walks through the material differences between the statement and the updated forecasts, painting a more dovish outright picture. After talking through the most likely paths for the BoC, the duo discuss which asset class is likely to provide better total returns in 2024, rates versus credit. Josh discusses why credit is turning into a defensive asset class and why it is attractive at current levels, while Ian discusses the relative supply outlook to government bonds. The show finishes with both talking about their favorite trade ideas for the next few weeks.

Ian PollickJosh Kay
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Josh Kay

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 69
26 min

The Silence of the Longs

Ian is joined by Craig Bell this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent cheapening of the cash market relative to swaps. Craig discusses the specific factors in the cash market impacting relative valuations, while Ian provides an update on the fair-value estimates from his swap spread modeling work. The elephant in the room is the Canadian long-end, and the richness of 10s30s and cross market. Ian and Craig spend time discussing how we got here and, what needs to happen for this richness to be remediated. Craig and Ian discuss the upcoming Bank of Canada rate decision, and get into a friendly disagreement about the proximate trigger of rate cuts in 2024.

Ian PollickCraig Bell
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Craig Bell

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 68
21 min

Make duration great again

Ian is joined this week by Mike Larson, and the duo kick off the episode by discussing the elephant in the room – the level of interest rates. Ian discusses the mechanics behind the ungluing of global long-end interest rates, while Mike gives his view on swap spreads. The pair talk about why the level of swap spreads should continue to decline, especially given how much 10yr Canadian rates have underperformed the United States recently. Ian gives his view on the absurdity of trading the ‘higher for longer’ and the ‘soft landing’ narrative at the same time. The show finishes with Ian and Mike outlining their favorite trades and which positions are the most crowded.

Ian PollickMike Larson
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Mike Larson

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 67
23 min

An Economist and Strategist walk into a bar...

Ian is joined this week by Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC. The duo begin the episode discussing the most recent North American jobs reports, with Avery highlighting why the Fed hasn’t yet done enough to cool the hot jobs market. Ian outlines the reasons not to get too wrapped-up in Canada’s recent wage gains, while Avery provides his view on the recent increase in the Unemployment Rate. The pair spend some time discussing the outlook for monetary policy, concluding that September is still very much in play for the Bank of Canada despite a string of weaker-than-expected activity data. The show finishes with Ian discussing the recent volatility in global long-bonds.

Ian PollickAvery Shenfeld
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Avery Shenfeld

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 66
21 min

This selloff has a deeper meaning

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent bond market selloff. They reach an interesting conclusion early in the episode, highlighting that the ‘way’ in which the market is repricing has not been seen in all of 2023. Ian believes the market is pricing-in more inflation and lower growth in longer-dated yields, which Jeremy suggests is a function of where we are in the cycle. Jeremy discusses his view on the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting, while discussing the ‘big’ global macro themes and what they mean to the bond market and swap spreads. Ian finishes the episode by opining on recent data from the labour market, and highlights his favorite trades for the week ahead.

Ian PollickJeremy Saunders
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 65
24 min

Someone is making a mistake...

Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, and the duo begin the episode discussing the FOMC rate decision. Andrew lays out the logic behind his forecast for a July and September hike, while Ian walks through the implications for the Bank of Canada. Ian introduces his new bond forecasts and talks about why current market pricing for the Bank and the Fed looks so strange compared to prior cycles. Andrew talks about his economic outlook for 2024 and highlights the upcoming weighting changes for CPI next week.

Ian PollickAndrew Grantham
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham