Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 62
26 min

Under the table & dreaming

The extreme volatility this week warrants some serious discussion, and Ian is joined by Craig Bell for this episode. The duo begin discussing the rapid series of events that culminated in one of the most volatile days for interest rates since the 1980s. Craig provides his view on what this all means for monetary policy, while Ian introduces two potential shoes left to drop that suggest the coast is not entirely clear yet. The co-hosts spend some time discussing how Canadian interest rate derivatives are handing the benchmark transition towards CORRA, and finish the episode discussing their favorite trades in the weeks ahead.

Ian PollickCraig Bell
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Craig Bell

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 61
18 min

Two types of easing cycles

Ian and Jeremy begin the episode by discussing the FOMC meeting from last week. Jeremy spends some time dissecting the disinflationary narrative used by Chairman Powell, while Ian discusses the extremely strong data which came out after the meeting. The duo do a victory lap as many of the trading themes discussed in the prior episode ended up working quite well, and the co-hosts discuss the driving forces of markets in an otherwise quiet week ahead. Ian discusses why the front-end of Canada remains very vulnerable to a repricing higher, while in the balance of the show the pair discuss why easing is priced the way it is for 2024 and what that means for long rates.

Ian PollickJeremy SaundersBipan Rai
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders, Bipan Rai

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 60
24 min

Why does the ‘Close Elevator’ button never work?

The first CYE episode of 2023 sees Ian joined by Jeremy Saunders, and the conversation starts with a discussion on global macro shifts. Stronger global growth outside the United States is an unexpected development, and the duo discuss what it means for global bond yields. Jeremy asks why the BoC spent so much optionality so early into the year, while Ian talks about the market implications of a conditional pause. The duo agree that spreads look toppy, though they disagree on whether or not market pricing for eases can realistically move from 2023 to 2024. The episode ends with both Ian and Jeremy speaking about their favorite near-term trades

Ian PollickJeremy SaundersBipan Rai
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders, Bipan Rai

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 59
27 min

Big conversations in the short-end

Ian is joined this week by Brenden Donaher, and the duo begin the episode by discussing Bank of Canada pricing for the upcoming meeting. Ian walks through various scenarios around the meeting, and Brenden provides his view on what that means for 2023 pricing. Brenden introduces the idea that the USD still remains the most important factor driving Canadian short-end pricing, despite some idiosyncratic developments which will occur next year. Ian spends some time walking through his outlook for rates in 2023, while Brenden provides his view on the year-end turn as well as the reasons why CDOR-OIS looks too cheap compared to spot pricing.

Ian PollickBipan RaiBrenden Donaher
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Bipan Rai, Brenden Donaher

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 58
26 min

Bank of Canada preview

Ian and Andrew discuss their expectations for the Bank of Canada interest rate decision next week. The duo walk through the reasons why the Bank will need to hike by another 75.0bps next week, and look at the most likely path of short-rates over the rest of the year. Ian talks about his favorite trades going into the release, noting that the forward expectations for BoC policy are too flat. Andrew spends some time detailing his expectation of forecast changes in the MPR, while the pair spend time talking about the impact that a weaker Canadian dollar has on both CPI and the stance of policy.

Ian PollickAndrew GranthamBipan Rai
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham, Bipan Rai

Curve Your Enthusiasm Episode 57
23 min

Well, that’s a big HELOC payment...

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the Bank of Canada rate decision this past week. Jeremy discusses his view on terminal rates becoming more ‘bounded’, while Ian introduces the concept of a higher lower bound. Both have profound implications for the shape of the yield curve compared to prior cycles. The hosts take some time to walk through what trades worked well for them recently, and discuss the outlook for 5yr swap spreads. The pair finish the show by talking about why the Canadian dollar might just be the biggest swing factor when it comes a higher Canadian terminal rate.

Ian PollickJeremy SaundersBipan Rai
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders, Bipan Rai