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Podcast Series
Curve Your Enthusiasm

Shakedown street

This past week demonstrated the largest amount of macro divergence over the past several years, with one major central bank hiking rates while another cut, at the same time the Fed straddles a dovish and hawkish message. This week, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics, and the duo begin the episode by discussing these events. Ali makes the case that the macro story across developed markets is still linear, and monetary policy is moving to an easing cycle. But how deep that easing cycle will be is the ultimate question, and what it means for the bond market is what Ian tries to unravel. Ian discusses his view on the yield curve, suggesting that a lack of tradeoff between inflation and growth leads to higher longer-term yields for any given level of the overnight rate. Ian goes as far as to call the time of death of the flattener, noting we have firmly moved into a trend steepening cycle. The duo discuss the recent BoC speech on balance sheet normalization, and end the episode opining on the recent BoC Survey of Deliberations and what that means for the timing of the first cut.
Podcasts

2023 Year in Review - Canadian Real Estate Investment Banking

As 2023 kicked off, the most discussed topic amongst consumers, business people and real estate investors and owners was interest rates. Key questions included how long inflation would remain, when interest rates would stop rising, when interest rates would peak and when we would see the beginning of a rate cutting cycle. By the end of the year, many of these questions remained unanswered, with most market participants believing that we had seen the peak and the remaining questions geared towards when in 2024 rates would start to decline and how quickly they would come back down.
Articles & Reports