Economics

The latest In Focus report by CIBC Economists questions whether the US should even be trying to reallocate more of its employment towards manufacturing.

It was a less than remarkable overnight session in FX markets, with the DXY near unchanged currently at 99.465 (+0.09%).

The past two weeks have seen an extremely stormy Treasuries market, but only one of two swings that largely offset each other generated a flood of “end of the world as we know it” commentaries.

The Bank of Canada decided today to keep its interest rate on hold at 2.75%, rather than delivering a further interest rate cut. CIBC Senior Economist Andrew Grantham offers his perspective.

The Bank of Canada opted to stand pat with the policy rate remaining at 2.75%, rather than continue on its prior easing path, but this was clearly a decision based on a lack of information rather than a definitive signal that rate cuts are done.

The greenback starts the session slightly weaker with the biggest beneficiary being the Swiss (USD/CHF -0.85% now at 0.8165) and the Euro (EUR/USD +0.78% now at 1.1371).

Markets are relatively calm into the upcoming session with very little event risk on the horizon (at least foreseeable event risk).

Risk assets are bouncing given news of the electronics tariff exemption. Global rates are generally lower with the US front end outperforming.

Are the official population growth forecasts too low? CIBC Deputy Economist, Benjamin Tal, shares his analysis.

The astronomical tariffs that the US put into effect presented a clear and present danger of a global recession, so most investors saw plenty of reason for Canada’s central bank to provide further rate relief. But then those same investors decided that Trump’s decision to “pause” those tariffs at 10% will bring a matching pause in rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, provides a deeper analysis of this and outlook for the Canadian and US markets in the Week Ahead report below.  

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the co-hosts begin the show discussing the manic week that was. There was not a lot of visibility to the moves in bond and equity markets over the prior few sessions, and Jeremy discusses his view on what was real and what was myth. Ian spends some time talking about the lack of evidence to support a few of the theories that markets are thinking about. The duo spend time talking about the level of interest rates going forward, disagreeing on the most likely direction of longer-term interest rates over the coming weeks. Ian provides his view on what the Bank of Canada is likely to do at their meeting next week, while Jeremy gives an update on his Fed views. The show completes with Ian and Jeremy discussing their favourite expressions of macro themes in the bond market.

How will recent tariff announcements impact the Canadian and global economic outlook? CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, offers his perspective.

Risk off yet again, with rates continuing to selloff in the US and globally. There are increasing signs of capital flight from the US given US rates, equities, and the USD are all selling off in tandem.

The global trading system has been sitting on eggshells since the US election in November, and now, like Humpty Dumpty, it’s had a great fall. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, examines the reaction of the equity market in recent days and implications for the global economy going forward.

CIBC economists provide their analysis of the reciprocal tariffs by President Trump and what this means for the Bank of Canada and the Canadian economy.

Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s Deputy Chief Economist, joins Katherine Judge, CIBC Senior Economist, to discuss the deteriorating US economic backdrop, the trade landscape, and implications for the Fed and the Bank of Canada.

Time is not on Trump’s side. CIBC Economists examine the fragility of the US economy amidst rising tariff uncertainty in the latest In Focus report.

As the US is set to execute on the automotive products tariff next week, CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares his perspectives on how Canada should respond to the incoming tariffs.

Risk on once again, with European equities outperforming and European yields selling off.

Risk on this morning, with US equities and industrial metals higher, and global rates selling off, after reports that April 2nd tariffs could be more targeted and less broad based.