Economics Reports

Investors have ample reason to seek out international diversification. But floating currencies represent a complication in that formula, particularly for a Canadian pension fund where the objective is to cover future obligations in Canadian dollars, or even for an individual who is saving for a retirement in Canada. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, takes a deeper dive into hedging and the path for rates in view of the market volatility.

For various reasons, real GDP growth, commodity prices, consumer sentiments and other economic data in the first half of this year will be muddied. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, provides some hints on how to interpret them.

With a Liberal win in the Canadian elections, Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, analyses the first order of business for Prime Minister Carney and what to watch for in the coming months.

How US tariffs impact key export sectors like autos, metals, and lumber, and how supply chains get shaken as the ground shifts under the global trading system, should have implications for what types of relief measures are warranted in Canada.

The latest In Focus report by CIBC Economists questions whether the US should even be trying to reallocate more of its employment towards manufacturing.

The past two weeks have seen an extremely stormy Treasuries market, but only one of two swings that largely offset each other generated a flood of “end of the world as we know it” commentaries.

The Bank of Canada decided today to keep its interest rate on hold at 2.75%, rather than delivering a further interest rate cut. CIBC Senior Economist Andrew Grantham offers his perspective.

The Bank of Canada opted to stand pat with the policy rate remaining at 2.75%, rather than continue on its prior easing path, but this was clearly a decision based on a lack of information rather than a definitive signal that rate cuts are done.

Are the official population growth forecasts too low? CIBC Deputy Economist, Benjamin Tal, shares his analysis.

The astronomical tariffs that the US put into effect presented a clear and present danger of a global recession, so most investors saw plenty of reason for Canada’s central bank to provide further rate relief. But then those same investors decided that Trump’s decision to “pause” those tariffs at 10% will bring a matching pause in rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, provides a deeper analysis of this and outlook for the Canadian and US markets in the Week Ahead report below.  

How will recent tariff announcements impact the Canadian and global economic outlook? CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, offers his perspective.

The global trading system has been sitting on eggshells since the US election in November, and now, like Humpty Dumpty, it’s had a great fall. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, examines the reaction of the equity market in recent days and implications for the global economy going forward.

CIBC economists provide their analysis of the reciprocal tariffs by President Trump and what this means for the Bank of Canada and the Canadian economy.

Time is not on Trump’s side. CIBC Economists examine the fragility of the US economy amidst rising tariff uncertainty in the latest In Focus report.

As the US is set to execute on the automotive products tariff next week, CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares his perspectives on how Canada should respond to the incoming tariffs.

Negotiating a cooling in tariff levels will be easier for Canada if the misery is shared by other countries facing new US tariffs. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares his perspective on the odds of negotiating tariffs down to a manageable size in this Week Ahead report.