FICC Strategy Reports

Into the start: Risk assets are rebounding this morning with global equities and industrial metals broadly higher. The broad USD is lower.

Into the start: Global equities and commodities are lower, while global yields are broadly higher. China sensitive assets are among the worst performers as Chinese private demand is proving weaker than expected.

The UST curve flattened sharply with 2Y yields, and 10y yields increasing 25bps, and 18bps, respectively, in reaction to the higher than expected US CPI print on Wednesday. The market pared 2024 rate cut expectations by around 25bps and it is currently pricing -41bps (less than two cuts) for the remainder of the year.

Commodity prices continue to rally, as industrial metals continue to lead the way. Global equities are mixed, with Europe outperforming, US futures flat, and mainland China lower amid a China ratings downgrade.

Prospective monetary policy divergence continues to result in the Dollar reigning supreme. While the market continues to mull a June ECB cut it appears probable that the Riksbank could move even earlier, May rate cut expectations have been fanned in the wake of a material CPI undershoot.

Spot gold prices record fresh highs into the open. Elsewhere, core global yields are pushing higher across the curve as markets reassess rate cut expectations, and longer-term equilibriums for growth/inflation. Copper and silver prices are also up – with both at their highest levels in over a year.

Into the start: The USD and global equities are little changed overnight. Within FX, EUR is the G10 outperformer as the March HICP showed continued strength in service prices, which should keep the ECB wary of easing too aggressively.

Commodity prices are rallying this morning on a combination of increased geopolitical risks and continued signs of a manufacturing cycle upturn. Oil and industrial metals are leading the way. Elsewhere, global equities are mixed while the USD is lower.

To begin: It’s quieter than usual with UK/European markets out for Easter Monday.

Into the start: The USD lost ground against all G10 FX peers except the Swiss franc ahead of the US consumer confidence data and preliminary durable goods orders numbers for the month of February.

To begin: Mixed backdrop. US rates are underperforming (yields higher) while risk assets retrace somewhat into the open. FX/OIS is wider for EUR, GBP and JPY.

Into the start: Global equities are slightly higher, while G10 rates are broadly lower. The USD is mixed, as domestic fundamentals drove G10 dispersion overnight.

Into the start: Risk assets are relatively steady to start the day. The USD is higher against all G10s as the market gears up for the possibility of a more hawkish Fed.

To begin: Price action in the cross-asset space is a bit sleepy ahead of an incredibly busy week for the macro.

Into the start: Another morning of relative calm in the market, with the broad USD unchanged, global rates roughly flat, and US equities steady.

Into the start: Risk assets and the BBDXY are broadly unchanged overnight as the market awaits US Feb CPI.