Author archives

To begin: There’s definitely a constructive tone to risk following recent US data (most notably ISM and payrolls). OIS swaps for Dec Feb meeting is now back to pricing in just under 50bps of easing. Sovereign bonds are bid for the most part, while commodities are firmer.

Bipan Rai is joined by CIBC Capital Markets’ Tushar Arora, Executive Director & Head of Institutional Cross-Asset Structuring, to discuss the recent intervention in JPY, economic/monetary policy divergence, and suitable diversifiers for risk in the FX space.

The big news overnight is that authorities in Japan (likely/probably/maybe) intervened in USD/JPY after the pair briefly pushed above 160. JPY FX/OIS is tighter in the front-end as well.

To begin: It’s a constructive start to the week for broad risk. NA equity futures are up–taking the baton from positive European/Asian sessions.

The UST curve flattened sharply with 2Y yields, and 10y yields increasing 25bps, and 18bps, respectively, in reaction to the higher than expected US CPI print on Wednesday. The market pared 2024 rate cut expectations by around 25bps and it is currently pricing -41bps (less than two cuts) for the remainder of the year.

Commodity prices continue to rally, as industrial metals continue to lead the way. Global equities are mixed, with Europe outperforming, US futures flat, and mainland China lower amid a China ratings downgrade.

Prospective monetary policy divergence continues to result in the Dollar reigning supreme. While the market continues to mull a June ECB cut it appears probable that the Riksbank could move even earlier, May rate cut expectations have been fanned in the wake of a material CPI undershoot.

Spot gold prices record fresh highs into the open. Elsewhere, core global yields are pushing higher across the curve as markets reassess rate cut expectations, and longer-term equilibriums for growth/inflation. Copper and silver prices are also up – with both at their highest levels in over a year.

To begin: It’s quieter than usual with UK/European markets out for Easter Monday.

To begin: Mixed backdrop. US rates are underperforming (yields higher) while risk assets retrace somewhat into the open. FX/OIS is wider for EUR, GBP and JPY.

The rise in insolvencies and mortgage delinquencies in Canada. CIBC Capital Markets’ Deputy Chief Economist, Benjamin Tal, joins Bipan Rai to discuss the risks to Canadian household consumer and mortgage credit, given the rate hikes from the Bank of Canada.

To begin: Price action in the cross-asset space is a bit sleepy ahead of an incredibly busy week for the macro.

CIBC Economist Ali Jaffery joins Bipan Rai to discuss the recent developments in the US – including the February CPI print and what the path to a slower US economy looks like.

To begin: The week kicks off with global equities on the defensive. Elsewhere, XBT is above $72k

To begin: North American equity futures are lower to start. Outside of that, it’s a quiet start to an otherwise busy week.

To begin: North American equity futures are drifting higher ahead of the cash open. Other moves of note overnight - front-end JGBs are under a fair amount of pressure after Japanese inflation came in hotter than expected for the month of January.