Oil shocks and the economy: The base case and other scenarios

CIBC’s Senior Economist, Katherine Judge, interviews Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld about the implications of the US-Israel and Iran war for the North American economy and financial markets. They explore how global markets—especially oil—are reacting to the conflict, what investors are pricing in, and the potential impact on North America’s economy, inflation, and monetary policy. This episode was recorded on Monday, March 2nd, 2026.

CIBC Economists Ali Jaffery and Katherine Judge break down how federal and provincial budgets are shaping growth, based on a new measure of the fiscal impulse in Canada, and how manufacturing in Canada compares with the U.S.

CIBC's Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, and Deputy Chief Economist, Benjamin Tal, discuss the latest trends in Canadian household credit, including rising policy rates and early signs of credit risk. They also break down the U.S. Supreme Court case on tariffs and what its outcome could mean for Canada’s trade future.

CIBC senior economists Katherine Judge and Ali Jaffery assess the impact of the recent wave of rapid student immigration on the economy and the labor market, and Canada’s economic record over that period. They also consider ideas for where student immigration and population growth could be headed in the future.

Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC, and Lawrence Schembri, former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, discuss the outlook of the Canadian economy and challenges in measuring inflation, US monetary policy, and Fed independence. They also explore recent trends in economic growth and Indigenous participation in major projects.

Benjamin Tal, CIBC's Deputy Chief Economist, and Katherine Judge, CIBC Senior Economist, discuss the evolving landscape of Canadian immigration policy, its impact on the housing market, and the critical role of purpose-built rentals in addressing affordability. Drawing on recent research and government initiatives, they explore how shifts in immigration trends are shaping economic productivity, the regional variations in housing market performance and how government initiatives are shaping both immediate and future responses to Canada’s affordability crisis.

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC's Chief Economist, and Katherine Judge, CIBC Senior Economist, discuss the complexities of interest rate policies and their impact on the Canadian labor market and the economy.