Overview
The agriculture sector experienced continued uncertainty in March, largely driven by ongoing global trade tensions and mixed macroeconomic signals. Crop prices were relatively stable, though wheat declined to multi-year lows due to large global harvests and renewed peace talks between major wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine. U.S. corn acres are expected to reach near-record levels in 2025, as farmers shift away from soybeans amid weak pricing and trade tensions with China – adding more pressure on already vulnerable soybean export demand. Fertilizer prices continued to trade higher primarily driven by strong spring planting activity and limited global supplies. A recent White House statement supporting a potential Black Sea deal to restore Russia’s access to global fertilizer market could trigger a drop in fertilizer prices, however the actual impact on supply may be limited as Russia currently exports near records levels, particularly for potash. Livestock futures reached all-time highs in March because of tight cattle supply driven by elevated feed costs and reduced cattle herds, coupled with a strong demand season, which runs from May to early September. Agriculture equipment sales have started to pick up ahead of the spring planting season, although dealer sentiment remains cautious, as elevated equipment costs are pushing many farmers to opt for used equipment. Overall farmer sentiment has declined slightly in March, reflecting concerns about trade wars and farm policy.
Share prices and trading multiples declined further across the sector, in-line with the broader pullback in the North American equity markets as investors grow cautious amid economic and political uncertainty. Revenue and EBITDA estimates for 2025 remain soft and are largely unchanged since last month. Corporate activity in the sector over the last month reflects a strong focus on innovation, sustainability and global expansion with companies investing in precision technologies, renewable inputs, and supply chain infrastructure. Strategic partnerships and M&A demonstrate that key players are positioning themselves for long-term growth.
Leading Macroeconomic Indicators
Major Crop Prices (US$ / bu)
- Corn prices remain volatile due to expectations of near-record U.S. corn acreage, as farmers shift away from soybeans amid weak pricing and trade tensions with China, putting pressure on soybean export demand
- U.S. corn acreage is expected to rise by 5.2%, to about 95.3M acres, while soybean acres are expected to decline by 4.1%, to 83.5M
- Wheat prices have fallen, driven by large global harvests and peace talks between major wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine
Fertilizer Prices (FOB Midwest Spot; US$ / st)
- A recent White House statement supporting a potential Black Sea deal to restore Russia’s access to the global fertilizer market could trigger a drop in prices, however the actual impact on supply may be limited
- Potash prices trade higher supported by strong spring planting demand
- Phosphate markets remain tight, with prices slightly up, amid rising raw materials, low stocks in India and new demand from Ethiopia
- Ammonia prices are rising due to peak application season and reduced supply from Lithuania
Livestock Futures (CME US$ / lbs)
- Feeder cattle and live cattle futures reached an all-time high in March, supported by tight cattle supplies coupled with a strong demand season
- The USDA lowered its hog price forecast in the March WASDE report due to slower slaughter rates, reduced exports and weaker domestic demand, however, lean hog futures have increased since early March as we head into the peak demand and pricing season
U.S. Cash Crop Receipts & Net Farm Income (US$bn)
- USDA’s forecasts for 2025 U.S. cash crop receipts and net farm income remain unchanged from last month
- Cash crop receipts are projected at 239.9 billion (2.3% YoY decline), and net farm income expected to increase $41.0B (or 29.5%) to $180.1B in 2025, largely supported by strong government funding
- Canada’s farm income is expected to decrease, driven by decline in crop receipts and program payments, as well as trade uncertainties
Ag Equipment Sales (Units)
- U.S. tractor and combine sales are down 17.5% and 49.3% YoY, respectively, however the sales are picking up ahead of planting season
- With demand for new equipment softening due to high costs, dealers are prioritizing used machines as many farmers look to lower costs
- Manufacturers sentiment is mixed, while there is optimism tied to deregulatory signals and more favorable tax outlook, tariffs and immigration reforms continue to weigh on the market
Ag Economy Barometer Index
- Farmer sentiment declined in March, with the Ag Economy Barometer falling 12 points to 140, down from 152 in February
- The Current Conditions Index fell, down 5 points to 132, impacted by recent decline in crop prices
- The Future Expectations Index dropped 15 points to 144, reflecting increased uncertainty around agricultural trade and farm policy
Recent M&A Announcements
- Mar. 28: Buhler announces the completion of amalgamation with ASKO and will continue to operate as Buhler Industries Inc. (Link)
- Mar. 25: Bunge agrees to sell its European margarines and spreads business to Vandemoortele (Link)
- Mar. 25: Greencore increases its bid for rival Bakkavor Group to a total EV of £1,14B ($1.48B USD) after prior 2 bids were rejected (Link)
Corporate Activity by Sector
Fertilizers
- Mar. 31: OCP Nutricrops announces strategic investment to increase fertilizer production – 4.5M tons by 2026, 9M tons by 2028 (Link)
- Mar. 21: Yara appoints Magnus Krogh Ankarstrand as EVP & CFO, former EVP Corporate Development (Link)
- Mar. 20: Yara refinances US$1,400M revolving credit facility with a syndicate of 11 banks (Link)
- Mar. 19: Hy2gen submits notice for project COURANT, a renewable ammonia plant targeting 230,000 tons of output in 2030 (Link)
- Mar. 19: K+S and Bantrel announce a partnership for the ramp-up of the Bethune mine, target 4M tons of potash per year (Link)
- Mar. 18: 3Degrees, CF Industries, and Mars launch a low carbon fertilizer alliance to decarbonize the agriculture supply chain (Link)
- Mar. 11: Nutrien announces US$400M of 4.5% (due 2027) and US$600M of 5.25% (die 2032) senior notes, used to repay debt (Link)
- Mar. 10: OCI announces resolution of Natgasoline joint venture dispute with Proman in favour of OCI (Link)
Seed and Chemicals
- Mar. 26: Syngenta reports 2024 rev. and EBITDA down 10% & 15% Y/Y, with improvements in crop protection expected in 2025 (Link)
- Mar. 24: Bayer appoints Dr. Mike Graham to succeed Dr. Robert Reiter (retiring) as new Head of R&D for Crop Science Division (Link)
- Mar. 19: Bayer opens maize seed facility in Zambia suppling 6.4M smallholders with maize seed in 2025, 10M by 2030 (Link)
- Mar. 19: Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) reported 2024 results with sales flat and EBITDA down ~15% Y/Y (Link)
- Mar. 5: Bioceres secures a U.S. patent until 2042 for HB4 Wheat, an FDA approved wheat with improved drought tolerance (Link)
- Mar. 5: BASF CEO Mark Ehrhardt resigns, succeeded by Heather Remley, President Global Engineering Services (Link)
Agriculture Equipment
- Mar. 28: Buhler announces the completion of amalgamation with ASKO and will continue to operate as Buhler Industries Inc. (Link)
- Mar. 24: CNH partners with xFarm to launch pilot project in Central Asia to help farmers increase productivity and save water (Link)
- Mar. 19: John Deere joins Growth Energy, U.S.’s largest biofuel trade association, to promote crop-based renewable fuels (Link)
- Mar. 18: CNH Industrial announces price offering of US$500M of 4.75% senior unsecured notes due 2028 (Link)
- Mar. 5: Linamar announces record sales of C$10.6B for 2024, up 8.7% from 2023 carried by stronger equipment sales (Link)
- Mar. 3: Mahindra announces the sale of 23,880 tractor units in February 2025, up 19% Y/Y (Link)
- Mar. 2: CNH’s Case IH launches SenseApply a live VRA selective spraying technology with no per acre or annual fees (Link)
Diversified Agribusiness
- Mar. 27: ADM and Mitsubishi sign non-binding MOU to explore future collaborations across agriculture value chain (Link)
- Mar. 25: Greencore increases its bid for rival Bakkavor Group to a total EV of £1,14B ($1.48B USD) after prior 2 bids were rejected (Link)
- Mar. 25: Bunge agrees to sell its European margarines and spreads business to Vandemoortele (Link)
- Mar. 12: ALCIVIA opens a new grain terminal in Hagar City, Wisconsin with 3.9M bushels of storage (Link)
- Mar. 10: Cargill opens new corn milling plant in Gwalior, India with an initial 500 tons/day output with potential to expand to 1000 tons (Link)
- Mar. 7: GrainCorp supports A$250M Australian Government investment in low carbon and plant based liquid fuels (Link)
Food & Ingredients
- Mar. 27: IFF and Kemira form and invest €130M in joint venture Alpha Bio to convert up to 44,000MT of plant sugars to bioproducts (Link)
- Mar. 27: Tate & Lyle announces the CEO of Croda Intl. Steve Foots to the Board as a non-executive director (Link)
- Mar. 24: Ajinomoto invests in Enhanced Medical Nutrition Inc. a startup focused on nutritional care for surgery patients (Link)
- Mar. 17: Green Plains breaks ground on 800,000 ton carbon sequestration infrastructure for three Nebraska facilities (Link)
- Mar. 3: Arla Foods Ingredients partners with Velley Queen to meet growing demand for protein-enriched dairy in the U.S. (Link)
Technology
- Mar. 20: AGCO releases Trimble IonoGuard to enhance signal tracking and reduce the risk of signal loss during solar activity peaks (Link)
- Mar. 18: Berger and Sollum partner to explore new strategies for optimizing crop performance in greenhouses (Link)
- Mar. 17: Cimbria installs Continuous Flow Dryer at VNR Seeds India new facility aims to reduce energy costs (Link)
- Mar. 3: Bayer introduces Vyconic Soybeans which is the first to feature tolerance to five herbicide active ingredients (Link)
- Mar. 2: AGCO wins Davidson Prize for OutRun, the first commercially available autonomous retrofit grain cart solution (Link)
