Author archives

The financial commentariat has started to point fingers at the easing the Fed has done to date, but to twist Marc Anthony’s famed speech, we come to praise Caeser, not to bury him in criticism.

Canada is taking steps to gird itself for the battle against a looming tariff threat from the US, and a list of potential retaliatory tariffs on US products is being assembled as a part of that effort.

With Parliament’s prorogation and the race underway for a new leader of the Liberal party, Roman Dubczak, Deputy Chair of CIBC Capital Markets, is joined by the Hon. Lisa Raitt, Vice Chair, Global Investment Banking, and Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC, to discuss the implications of the Prime Minister’s announcement, especially in light of President Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration and the issues surrounding immigration and tariffs.

It was never literally true that all roads led to Rome during that empire’s haydays. But in Canadian politics, the question for market participants is whether all roads now lead to the same destination, a Conservative majority government sometime in 2025.

Roman Dubczak, Deputy Chair, CIBC Capital Markets, sat with Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist, and Ian de Verteuil, Head of Portfolio Strategy, for a year-end discussion on economic and market trends, focusing on the implications from the results of the US election and their impact on Canadian businesses as we look ahead to 2025.

Tune into Avery Shenfeld's parody of Backstreet Boy’s Everybody, extended version.

Our latest In Focus report delves into measures beyond the unemployment rate to identify other indicators of increasing economic slack. Taken together, they provide ample reason for the Bank of Canada to continue to ease policy in 2025.

The story might be apocryphal, but a philosophy professor asked a one-word question on his final exam: “Why”? As the tale goes, the student assigned the highest grade responded with a two-word answer: “Why not?”. That’s also been the best answer to those who have been questioning our long-held forecast that the Bank of Canada will and ought to deliver second consecutive 50 basis point rate cut in its December announcement.

CIBC Senior Economist Katherine Judge interviews Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld about his take on Trump’s nominees, and what signals can be gleaned about the risk to the bond market from rising deficits, and the risks to inflation and trade from tariffs.

Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, reviews of the fiscal considerations and tariff policy as President Trump takes over.

CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, discusses what this week’s “multi-billion” package from Canada’s federal government might mean for the economy and its growth rate ahead.

We’ve been giving some thought to the Taylor Rule. Not John Taylor’s monetary policy guideline, but how one assesses the economic consequences of large scale events, prompted by Taylor Swift’s swing through Toronto and Vancouver in November and December.

Economic models place considerable emphasis on the concept of “potential GDP”, defined as the level of real output that at any point in time is the maximum attainable without upward pressure on inflation.

Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld takesa look at the economic implications of Trump's election victory for our base case. For the macro picture, the three salient issues are tax/spending changes and their impact on budget deficits and borrowing needs, trade policy, and monetary policy (including Fed appointments).

The lead up to major events typically entails a rise in uncertainty, and the event itself then resolves that uncertainty one way or another. But for the upcoming US election, the only certainty is that there could be at least as much uncertainty the morning after we know the winner.