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The past two weeks have seen an extremely stormy Treasuries market, but only one of two swings that largely offset each other generated a flood of “end of the world as we know it” commentaries.

The Bank of Canada opted to stand pat with the policy rate remaining at 2.75%, rather than continue on its prior easing path, but this was clearly a decision based on a lack of information rather than a definitive signal that rate cuts are done.

The astronomical tariffs that the US put into effect presented a clear and present danger of a global recession, so most investors saw plenty of reason for Canada’s central bank to provide further rate relief. But then those same investors decided that Trump’s decision to “pause” those tariffs at 10% will bring a matching pause in rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, provides a deeper analysis of this and outlook for the Canadian and US markets in the Week Ahead report below.  

How will recent tariff announcements impact the Canadian and global economic outlook? CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, offers his perspective.

Assessing the immediate and longer-term impacts of tariffs, including the economic landscape, the political ramifications, and the role of the upcoming Canadian federal election.

The global trading system has been sitting on eggshells since the US election in November, and now, like Humpty Dumpty, it’s had a great fall. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, examines the reaction of the equity market in recent days and implications for the global economy going forward.

As the US is set to execute on the automotive products tariff next week, CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares his perspectives on how Canada should respond to the incoming tariffs.

Negotiating a cooling in tariff levels will be easier for Canada if the misery is shared by other countries facing new US tariffs. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares his perspective on the odds of negotiating tariffs down to a manageable size in this Week Ahead report.

Removing interprovincial trade barriers is a laudable goal, but our In Focus report by Avery Shenfeld and Ali Jaffery finds that its economic lift is likely to be more modest than some have claimed.

What could a prolonged trade dispute mean for the Canadian economy? CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, offers his perspective.

The Bank of Canada's quarter point rate cut today might be only a Band-Aid, but it's to address an economic wound of unknown size at this point. Chief economist, Avery Shenfeld, explores the Bank of Canada's move in the light of the tariff uncertainties.

The trade war is still very much in play and a one-month reprieve means little, particularly since exporters rushed to get their March shipments across the border ahead of time, leaving less export demand for the coming few weeks. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, explores the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting path and more in this piece.

The 30-day cease fire has run its course, and the North American trade war is back on. The tariffs on Canadian exports will have a significant impact on exports and business investment and if permanent would drive the Canadian economy into recession. CIBC economists explore more on this.

CIBC Senior Economist, Ali Jaffery, interviews Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, about his latest note on US fiscal policy, discussing the House budget resolution, implications for the Fed, and what this means for the bond market.

CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, discusses the US fiscal policy and what investors need to know in the week ahead.

Canadian diplomatic efforts in Washington should be calling attention to the surplus that the US currently runs with Canada. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares some insights on this surplus investment flows from Canada and how that ties into the overall shape of America’s balance of payments with other countries.