Author archives

We’ve been giving some thought to the Taylor Rule. Not John Taylor’s monetary policy guideline, but how one assesses the economic consequences of large scale events, prompted by Taylor Swift’s swing through Toronto and Vancouver in November and December.

Economic models place considerable emphasis on the concept of “potential GDP”, defined as the level of real output that at any point in time is the maximum attainable without upward pressure on inflation.

Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld takesa look at the economic implications of Trump's election victory for our base case. For the macro picture, the three salient issues are tax/spending changes and their impact on budget deficits and borrowing needs, trade policy, and monetary policy (including Fed appointments).

The lead up to major events typically entails a rise in uncertainty, and the event itself then resolves that uncertainty one way or another. But for the upcoming US election, the only certainty is that there could be at least as much uncertainty the morning after we know the winner.

The good news is that Canadian monetary policy is now on a decisive easing path, one that should allow a return to full employment by 2026. Three cheers for that. But forgive us if we do a little Monday morning quarterbacking, by exploring whether, with the benefit of hindsight, all of the economic pain inflicted by high interest rates, in the battle to wrestle inflation back to 2%, was actually necessary.

Markets have thrown down their 50 basis point chip on the poker table, betting that the Bank of Canada will deliver an interest rate cut of that magnitude next week. But will the central bankers call that bet, or raise to 75?

With a US election only weeks away, fixed income investors need to give some thought to how its outcome could impact theFed’s decisions in 2025.

Data revisions can be an economist’s friend or foe, depending on whether they enhance or negate the facts you’ve been drawing on to support your outlook...

CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld is joined by Dr. Richard Clarida, Managing Director & Global Economic Advisor, PIMCO, who shares his perspectives on the US outlook, the direction for the Fed, and the implications for markets.

Like everyone else, when the US Federal Reserve policy committee prints its new forecasts, our eyes jump right away to the median responses. But what differentiates the Fed from the Bank of Canada is that the committee shows the full distribution of the projections of its members, and there’s meaning beyond the median if you take the time to look at the range of individual forecasts.

As rates drop, what is on the horizon for the US Economy? CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld shares his thoughts.

As rates drop, what is on the horizon for the Canadian Economy? CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld shares his thoughts.

There are two sides to every coin, and two sides to how Washington influences macroeconomic stimulus or restraint. Markets will be hyperfocused on monetary policy as the Fed meets next week, although the direction for the near term seems crystal clear, with only the timing up for grabs.

In the battle against inflation, central bankers in the US and Canada are set to declare victory, and investors and the broader economy will reap the rewards.

Avery Shenfeld joins Ali Jaffery to discuss the US federal election and the future directions of trade policy under a Trump or Harris presidency, and what this would mean for the US and Canada.