Author archives

Roman Dubczak, Deputy Chair, CIBC Capital Markets, sat with Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist, and Ian de Verteuil, Head of Portfolio Strategy, for a year-end discussion on economic and market trends, focusing on the implications from the results of the US election and their impact on Canadian businesses as we look ahead to 2025.

Tune into Avery Shenfeld's parody of Backstreet Boy’s Everybody, extended version.

Our latest In Focus report delves into measures beyond the unemployment rate to identify other indicators of increasing economic slack. Taken together, they provide ample reason for the Bank of Canada to continue to ease policy in 2025.

The story might be apocryphal, but a philosophy professor asked a one-word question on his final exam: “Why”? As the tale goes, the student assigned the highest grade responded with a two-word answer: “Why not?”. That’s also been the best answer to those who have been questioning our long-held forecast that the Bank of Canada will and ought to deliver second consecutive 50 basis point rate cut in its December announcement.

CIBC Senior Economist Katherine Judge interviews Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld about his take on Trump’s nominees, and what signals can be gleaned about the risk to the bond market from rising deficits, and the risks to inflation and trade from tariffs.

Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, reviews of the fiscal considerations and tariff policy as President Trump takes over.

CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, discusses what this week’s “multi-billion” package from Canada’s federal government might mean for the economy and its growth rate ahead.

We’ve been giving some thought to the Taylor Rule. Not John Taylor’s monetary policy guideline, but how one assesses the economic consequences of large scale events, prompted by Taylor Swift’s swing through Toronto and Vancouver in November and December.

Economic models place considerable emphasis on the concept of “potential GDP”, defined as the level of real output that at any point in time is the maximum attainable without upward pressure on inflation.

Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld takesa look at the economic implications of Trump's election victory for our base case. For the macro picture, the three salient issues are tax/spending changes and their impact on budget deficits and borrowing needs, trade policy, and monetary policy (including Fed appointments).

The lead up to major events typically entails a rise in uncertainty, and the event itself then resolves that uncertainty one way or another. But for the upcoming US election, the only certainty is that there could be at least as much uncertainty the morning after we know the winner.

The good news is that Canadian monetary policy is now on a decisive easing path, one that should allow a return to full employment by 2026. Three cheers for that. But forgive us if we do a little Monday morning quarterbacking, by exploring whether, with the benefit of hindsight, all of the economic pain inflicted by high interest rates, in the battle to wrestle inflation back to 2%, was actually necessary.

Markets have thrown down their 50 basis point chip on the poker table, betting that the Bank of Canada will deliver an interest rate cut of that magnitude next week. But will the central bankers call that bet, or raise to 75?

With a US election only weeks away, fixed income investors need to give some thought to how its outcome could impact theFed’s decisions in 2025.

Data revisions can be an economist’s friend or foe, depending on whether they enhance or negate the facts you’ve been drawing on to support your outlook...