AKA the budget-lite

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders and Brenden Donaher to discuss the key rates themes ahead of the FOMC meeting, including the case for a hike versus waiting until September. They discuss the Bank of Canada, why a quiet policy outlook makes trading the distribution of hikes one of the few real opportunities, and Ian’s view that structural and cyclical forces on duration are currently roughly balanced.

Ian and Mike Cloherty discuss bond market expectations as Middle East tensions ease, focusing on downside risk at the front-end due to Fed expectations. They review the expensive CAD rates market and limits to short-end repricing, CIBC’s new interest rate forecast, swap spread performance, and the recent SOFR trends.

Ian talks with Dan Kelly, President & CEO of CFIB, about how small businesses are handling current economic challenges. They discuss labour market trends, business sentiment, and the need for improved federal productivity strategies.

In the first episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm in 2026, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery from CIBC economics and Jean Boivin, Head of BlackRock Global Investment Institute. Jean begins the episode by outlining his core investment themes for 2026 across asset classes. It is hard to talk about 2026 without discussing AI, and Jean provides his view on why the near-term economic impact is inflationary, versus the longer-run impact which is disinflationary. The group discusses the risks inherent in the AI buildout, opines on market pricing across regions, and finishes the episode with a deep-dive on the Canadian economy and inflation path.

Canada is weeks away from receiving the federal budget, which is creating a lot of interest from market participants. In this episode, Ian and Ali spend time discussing why this budget will look different than those in prior years. The introduction of the new framework, coupled with expectations of fiscal stimulus, make this a key event for markets. The show begins with Ali discussing the reasons for the changes to the framework, while Ian discusses why markets are so hyper-focused on how the budget will be financed. The pair spend some time talking about whether the Bank can ease rates after the budget has been released, focusing on the impact to the economy from the elevated fiscal spend. The show concludes with Ian discussing why markets are reluctant to price-in more from the Bank, while Ali opines on what a Blue Jays World Series win will do the economy!

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the co-hosts begin the show discussing the manic week that was. There was not a lot of visibility to the moves in bond and equity markets over the prior few sessions, and Jeremy discusses his view on what was real and what was myth. Ian spends some time talking about the lack of evidence to support a few of the theories that markets are thinking about. The duo spend time talking about the level of interest rates going forward, disagreeing on the most likely direction of longer-term interest rates over the coming weeks. Ian provides his view on what the Bank of Canada is likely to do at their meeting next week, while Jeremy gives an update on his Fed views. The show completes with Ian and Jeremy discussing their favourite expressions of macro themes in the bond market.

In the first episode of 2025, Ian is joined by Aaron Carter from the financing desk to discuss recent adjustments in the short-end. The show begins with the duo discussing the importance of the Bank of Canada’s move to change the way monetary policy is implemented, namely moving back into a corridor system. Aaron gives his ‘big picture’ view on why this is a real game-changer for CORRA, and his expectations around the evolution of the spread to the target rate. Ian takes time discussing the various administered rates in the Canadian short-end and how to think about the subset of arbitrage opportunities. Aaron finishes the episode by describing the incoming tri-party repo system and how that will interact with monetary policy going forward.