Insights

Markets are being driven by the disappointing Chinese economic planning briefing post Golden Week, in which only 200 billion yuan in spending was announced vs expectations for trillions

Global equities are slightly lower while front end rates have continued to sell off as the market reassess the pace of easing in the wake of September payrolls and rising oil prices.

Ian is joined by two guests this week, Paul Beaudry (Professor of Economics at UBC and Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada) and Ali Jaffery from CIBC Economics. The episode begins with Paul giving his view on the 50.0bps cut from FOMC, and what the most recent strong NFP means for the November meeting (hint: 25.0bps not 50.0bps). In contrast, when thinking about the Bank of Canada, Paul outlines his views that the preconditions for getting administered rates to a much lower are setting have been met for Canada, and provides his views for the October meeting (hint: 50.0bps, not 25.0bps). Ian discusses the need for a smaller balance sheet, while Ali gives an update on what higher energy prices mean for the BoC reaction function.

So you might think that by now, economists and central bankers would have a good handle on the trade-off between slack and inflation. You would be wrong. The debate about how much slack is enough to cure high inflation, or whether inflation expectations dominate, is far from settled...

Global equities are rangebound to slightly lower overnight, while oil is slightly higher as geopolitical tensions simmer but have yet to escalate.

Weakening global climate commitments and a rise in trade tensions. Has the energy transition progress stalled?

Data revisions can be an economist’s friend or foe, depending on whether they enhance or negate the facts you’ve been drawing on to support your outlook...

Dr. Spencer Meyer of BeZero Carbon joins Ryan Fan, Managing Director and Vice Chair, Global Markets, CIBC Capital Markets, to discuss carbon ratings, including what it takes to assess carbon projects, how it helps carbon credit buyers to mitigate risk, and where the carbon ratings industry is headed.

Chinese equities have continued to rally in the wake of the recently announced stimulus program; elsewhere global equities are broadly rangebound to slightly lower.

CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld is joined by Dr. Richard Clarida, Managing Director & Global Economic Advisor, PIMCO, who shares his perspectives on the US outlook, the direction for the Fed, and the implications for markets.