Economics Reports

Are the official population growth forecasts too low? CIBC Deputy Economist, Benjamin Tal, shares his analysis.

The astronomical tariffs that the US put into effect presented a clear and present danger of a global recession, so most investors saw plenty of reason for Canada’s central bank to provide further rate relief. But then those same investors decided that Trump’s decision to “pause” those tariffs at 10% will bring a matching pause in rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, provides a deeper analysis of this and outlook for the Canadian and US markets in the Week Ahead report below.  

How will recent tariff announcements impact the Canadian and global economic outlook? CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, offers his perspective.

The global trading system has been sitting on eggshells since the US election in November, and now, like Humpty Dumpty, it’s had a great fall. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, examines the reaction of the equity market in recent days and implications for the global economy going forward.

CIBC economists provide their analysis of the reciprocal tariffs by President Trump and what this means for the Bank of Canada and the Canadian economy.

Time is not on Trump’s side. CIBC Economists examine the fragility of the US economy amidst rising tariff uncertainty in the latest In Focus report.

As the US is set to execute on the automotive products tariff next week, CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares his perspectives on how Canada should respond to the incoming tariffs.

Negotiating a cooling in tariff levels will be easier for Canada if the misery is shared by other countries facing new US tariffs. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares his perspective on the odds of negotiating tariffs down to a manageable size in this Week Ahead report.

Jay Powell's crystal ball is just as fuzzy as everyone else's with the FOMC electing to keep the rate path unchanged.

Removing interprovincial trade barriers is a laudable goal, but our In Focus report by Avery Shenfeld and Ali Jaffery finds that its economic lift is likely to be more modest than some have claimed.

With the cabinet sworn in today, a Canadian election call is in the offing for the next week or two. Other than the polls, what should investors be watching for in terms of implications for markets as we go through what now looks like a closely contested battle?

What could a prolonged trade dispute mean for the Canadian economy? CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, offers his perspective.

The Bank of Canada's quarter point rate cut today might be only a Band-Aid, but it's to address an economic wound of unknown size at this point. Chief economist, Avery Shenfeld, explores the Bank of Canada's move in the light of the tariff uncertainties.

The trade war is still very much in play and a one-month reprieve means little, particularly since exporters rushed to get their March shipments across the border ahead of time, leaving less export demand for the coming few weeks. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, explores the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting path and more in this piece.

The 30-day cease fire has run its course, and the North American trade war is back on. The tariffs on Canadian exports will have a significant impact on exports and business investment and if permanent would drive the Canadian economy into recession. CIBC economists explore more on this.

With tariffs being levied on Canadian goods that are sent to the US, now is the time for Canada to try and seek greater diversification in its trade. CIBC Senior Economist Andrew Grantham offers his perspective.