Economics Reports

Utilizing the might of the US economy, President Trump appears to be squeezing the White House’s far reaching power to the last drop. In the Week Ahead report, Deputy Chief Economist, Benjamin Tal, makes a case for and against the president’s next steps.

Is the current trade dispute with the US a catalyst to diversify Canada’s trade away from its neighbor south of the border?

Canadian diplomatic efforts in Washington should be calling attention to the surplus that the US currently runs with Canada. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares some insights on this surplus investment flows from Canada and how that ties into the overall shape of America’s balance of payments with other countries.

Anyone concerned about deficits, taxes, tariffs, renewable energy, and just about everything that impacts the US budget will be watching the US Capitol House in the next few days.

The trade war could begin tomorrow, or maybe we will get a delay. A lot remains unclear and if it begins, no one knows how long it will last, or whether further rounds of retaliation are in store...

Its still anyone’s guess what, if anything, February 1st will reveal about US tariffs on Canada and Mexico. An announcement of some sort now seems likely, since President Trump might feel that he’s boxed himself into that date.

Having already cut interest rates to the top of its estimated neutral range, the Bank of Canada is now able to fine tune, and in next week’s decision policymakers will be balancing some better economic signposts against heightened threats to the outlook ahead.

Our latest In Focus report, by Benjamin Tal, looks at the changing composition of the Canadian population.

The financial commentariat has started to point fingers at the easing the Fed has done to date, but to twist Marc Anthony’s famed speech, we come to praise Caeser, not to bury him in criticism.

Canada is taking steps to gird itself for the battle against a looming tariff threat from the US, and a list of potential retaliatory tariffs on US products is being assembled as a part of that effort.

It was never literally true that all roads led to Rome during that empire’s haydays. But in Canadian politics, the question for market participants is whether all roads now lead to the same destination, a Conservative majority government sometime in 2025.

We are more than 13 weeks since the first easing move by the Fed, and the 10-year rate is miles above its level back then. We haven’t seen such a trajectory in any of the previous cycles in recent history.

Tune into Avery Shenfeld's parody of Backstreet Boy’s Everybody, extended version.

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another half a percent this week. CIBC Senior Economist Andrew Grantham offers his analysis.

Our latest In Focus report delves into measures beyond the unemployment rate to identify other indicators of increasing economic slack. Taken together, they provide ample reason for the Bank of Canada to continue to ease policy in 2025.

The story might be apocryphal, but a philosophy professor asked a one-word question on his final exam: “Why”? As the tale goes, the student assigned the highest grade responded with a two-word answer: “Why not?”. That’s also been the best answer to those who have been questioning our long-held forecast that the Bank of Canada will and ought to deliver second consecutive 50 basis point rate cut in its December announcement.