Economics Reports

We are more than 13 weeks since the first easing move by the Fed, and the 10-year rate is miles above its level back then. We haven’t seen such a trajectory in any of the previous cycles in recent history.

Tune into Avery Shenfeld's parody of Backstreet Boy’s Everybody, extended version.

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another half a percent this week. CIBC Senior Economist Andrew Grantham offers his analysis.

Our latest In Focus report delves into measures beyond the unemployment rate to identify other indicators of increasing economic slack. Taken together, they provide ample reason for the Bank of Canada to continue to ease policy in 2025.

The story might be apocryphal, but a philosophy professor asked a one-word question on his final exam: “Why”? As the tale goes, the student assigned the highest grade responded with a two-word answer: “Why not?”. That’s also been the best answer to those who have been questioning our long-held forecast that the Bank of Canada will and ought to deliver second consecutive 50 basis point rate cut in its December announcement.

Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, reviews of the fiscal considerations and tariff policy as President Trump takes over.

The tale of the Canadian housing market in 2025 is a tale of two markets - the low-rise segment and the high-rise segment, with unique market characteristics. However, as our economists forecast, the buyers’ market conditions will not last for long as a lack of supply will clash with increased demand due to lower interest rates and recent changes to mortgage regulations, resulting in higher price pressures.

CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, discusses what this week’s “multi-billion” package from Canada’s federal government might mean for the economy and its growth rate ahead.

Will lower immigration targets impact economic growth in Canada? CIBC Senior Economist Andrew Grantham shares his insights.

With expectations that the Bank of Canada might be taking another big step in December, enroute to a bit below neutral next year, the latest In Focus article lays out how to read the tea leaves in this easing cycle.

We’ve been giving some thought to the Taylor Rule. Not John Taylor’s monetary policy guideline, but how one assesses the economic consequences of large scale events, prompted by Taylor Swift’s swing through Toronto and Vancouver in November and December.

Economic models place considerable emphasis on the concept of “potential GDP”, defined as the level of real output that at any point in time is the maximum attainable without upward pressure on inflation.

Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld takesa look at the economic implications of Trump's election victory for our base case. For the macro picture, the three salient issues are tax/spending changes and their impact on budget deficits and borrowing needs, trade policy, and monetary policy (including Fed appointments).

The In Focus report examines the impact of recent immigration target changes on Canadian potential growth, and whether slower population growth could become a headwind to the expected acceleration in economic activity in 2025.

The lead up to major events typically entails a rise in uncertainty, and the event itself then resolves that uncertainty one way or another. But for the upcoming US election, the only certainty is that there could be at least as much uncertainty the morning after we know the winner.

The good news is that Canadian monetary policy is now on a decisive easing path, one that should allow a return to full employment by 2026. Three cheers for that. But forgive us if we do a little Monday morning quarterbacking, by exploring whether, with the benefit of hindsight, all of the economic pain inflicted by high interest rates, in the battle to wrestle inflation back to 2%, was actually necessary.