CIBC Agriculture Market Monitor – June 2025

The agriculture sector showed mixed trends across key indicators in June. Corn and soybean prices continued to face downward pressure, reflecting ongoing favourable crop conditions. Wheat prices, however, remained stable, supported by weaker crop development and steady demand. Fertilizer markets were also mixed – ammonia prices declined as demand eased after spring applications and potash prices slightly dropped due to ample global inventories, while phosphate prices marginally rose, supported by bullish sentiment. Livestock futures saw strong gains, with lean hogs, feeder cattle, and live cattle all moving up, driven by robust seasonal demand and ongoing supply constraints. U.S. farm equipment sales remained soft, with both tractor and combine sales declining as farmers remained cautious amid ongoing economic uncertainties. In contrast, Canadian equipment sales demonstrated stronger performance, suggesting that overall conditions may improve as the planting season advances. The Ag Economy Barometer Index declined from May, reflecting overall increased caution among farmers due to uncertainties around income, production costs, global trade, and the broader economic outlook.​

As of late June, weather conditions across key growing regions remained variable, with warmer-than-normal temperatures and expanding dry areas in the Central U.S. and Canadian Prairies increasing potential for drought, if rainfall remains limited. Midwest soil moisture remains favourable, with most areas seeing a good mix of rainfall and dryness, supporting crop conditions. Eastern Canada and parts of the Plains received above-average precipitation. ​

Corporate activity across the agriculture sector remained steady in June, with ongoing investments in agricultural equipment innovations, fertilizer infrastructure and digital agribusinesses platforms. Key themes included capacity expansions, strategic partnerships and continued investments in automations and AI technologies, while M&A activity slowed down. Share prices and trading valuations across the sector remained stable in June, with no notable changes compared to May.

• Corn prices continued to remain under pressure in June given favorable crop conditions (73% good-to-excellent vs 5% very-poor-to-poor)​
• Wheat prices continued to gain momentum and closed slightly higher due to weaker crop development (96% complete vs 100% last year)and declining crop conditions (53% good-to-excellent vs 72% last year)​
• Soybean prices closed slightly lower amid ample supply and consistent crop conditions (66% good-to-excellent vs 7% very-poor-to-poor)​​

• Ammonia prices declined, as spring application demand in the Corn Belt began to ease by mid-June​
• Phosphate prices remained relatively stable, supported by bullish sentiment despite limited trading activity​
• Potash prices eased slightly due to ample global inventories, however, Nutrien increased its U.S. MOP price by 5% in response to strong participation in its summer fill program​

• Lean hog prices had a strong month, driven by strong seasonal demand​
• Market expects hog supplies will hit their lowest levels in early July​
• Feeder cattle and live cattle prices rose as U.S. cattle supplies tightened, partly due to the closure of the Mexican border to live cattle imports following a screwworm outbreak, as well as continued strong demand ​

• USDA projects a $41 billion increase (29.5%) in net farm income for 2025, driven mainly by higher government payments​
• Crop cash receipts (corn, soybeans, wheat) are expected to decline as a result of lower commodity prices, increased production costs and weaker export demand due to shifts in global trade​
• Canada’s farm income is expected to decrease, driven by a decline in crop receipts and program payments, as well as trade uncertainties​​

• U.S. tractor and combine sales in May were down 4% and 23% respectively, reflecting ongoing broader challenges in the ag economy ​
• Slow sales are driven by farmers’ cautious capital spending given elevated input prices, high interest rates, and global trade concerns​
• Canadian sales demonstrated stronger performance, suggesting that overall conditions may improve as the planting season advances​

• Farmer sentiment declined in June, after climbing to highest level last month (since May 2021), with the Ag Economy Barometer falling 12points to 146, down from 158 in May​
• The Current Conditions Index slightly declined, down 2 points to 144​
• The Future Expectations Index experience the sharpest decline of 18 points to 146, indicating decreased optimism about agricultural exports and shifts in trade outlook​

• Seasonal forecast calls for warmer than normal temperatures across most of Canada and the Central U.S. through July and August, raising the risk for continued moisture stress in key agriculture zones. The Central U.S. and the Prairies are projected to experience dryness, increasing the potential for widespread drought and crop impacts if rainfall remains limited
• Midwest (Iowa, Illinois, Missouri): Favorable conditions continue, though there is a mixture of wetter and drier areas throughout the region. Drought is minimal across the Midwest, with only 6% of the region in moderate to severe drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Overall, crops and pastures remain in good to excellent condition
• Great Plains (Kansas, Nebraska): Mixed conditions prevailed. Eastern Nebraska and parts of Kansas saw some improvement due to recent rainfall, but areas that stayed dry degraded due to heat and moisture loss. Long-term drought continues to show impacts in eastern Nebraska
• Northern Plains (Dakotas): Though some drought exists precipitation is generally coming at a good pace for the region
• Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba): Conditions across the provinces were variable, with some regions receiving limited rainfall and others experiencing heavy storms potentially causing crop damage. Rainfall significantly increased topsoil moisture in all regions
• Eastern Canada (Ontario and Quebec): Early growing season temperatures were at or below normal, with above-average precipitation in much of Ontario and Quebec, potentially causing seeding delays for some crops. Humid conditions persist, bringing frequent showers, which should result in near or above-normal precipitation across most of the region

• June 11: BayWa AG reaches an agreement to sell Cefetra Group, an agricultural ingredient company, to First Dutch (Link)​
• June 16: Bunge Global SA announces China approves merger with Viterra with conditions on crop supply stability (Link)​

Fertilizers​

• June 26: Itafos announces OTC Markets Group Inc has approved its application to trade on the OTCQX Best Market (Link)​
• June 25: ICL announces agreements to supply potash to both China (750k MT) and India (400k MT) for 2025 (Link)​
• June 13: Yara Clean Ammonia supports groundbreaking ammonia bunkering pilot in Pilbara (Link)​
• June 11: Yara announces completion of its Chedburgh, England liquid fertilizer terminal (Link)​
• June 12: OCI Global receives U.S. regulatory approval for the sale of its global methanol business to Methanex Corporation (Link)​
• June 5: Brazil Potash announces the completion of site preparation work at the future port terminal for the Autazes Project (Link)​
• June 2: K+S Aktiengesellschaft appoints Dr. Christian H. Meyer, former CFO, as the CEO, succeeding Dr. Burkhard Lohr (Link)

Seed and Chemicals​

• June 26: DuPont announces the launch of an advanced reverse osmosis (RO) to meet the evolving needs of the dairy processing (Link)​
• June 12: BASF announces the successful startup of its HMD in France increasing annual production capacity to 260k metric tons (Link)​
• June 3: FMC announces a strategic agreement with Corteva Agriscience expanding FMC’s fluindapyr fungicide technology (Link)​
• June 2: BASF has begun the registration process for its new fungicide innovation and submitted the regulatory dossiers (Link)​

Agriculture Equipment​

• June 25: Yanmar and Owasebussan Co. have officially launched a joint demonstration to promote sustainability in aquaculture (Link)​
• June 24: John Deere launches its large-size H Series wheeled machines, to elevate productivity and operational efficiency (Link)​
• June 17: John Deere launches new P-Tier which will help boost productivity and support operator confidence on the jobsite (Link)​
• June 13: Yanmar submits project design document to launch the world’s first compliance credits in the agricultural sector (Link)​
• June 12: AGI announces closing of $98 million public offering of senior subordinated unsecured debentures (Link)​
• June 5: John Deere announces it will invest $20 billion into U.S. manufacturing over the next 10 years (Link)​
• June 3: Yanmar announces a strategic partnership with ATC to expand business across 16 West African countries (Link)​
• June 3: John Deere announces the launch of its new F8 and F9 Series self-propelled forage harvesters (Link) ​
• June 2: CNH Industrial announces pricing of C$500 million offering of 3.75% notes due in June 2029 (Link)​

Diversified Agribusiness​

• June 26: LDC begins construction of its new food technology park in China (Link)​
• June 23: LDC reopens its Burns Harbor grain export facility on Lake Michigan at Portage, Indiana (Link)​
• June 19: Olam has joined a strategic partnership with IDH, to support soybean production in Nigeria’s Kwara State (Link)​
• June 17: Cargill further strengthens its presence in Mindanao, with a feed production partnership in Tantangan, South Cotabato (Link)​
• June 5: Cargill announces that it has agreed to purchase all of the issued share capital of Teys Investments (Link)​​

Food & Ingredients​

• June 23: IFF officially relocates its Global Business Services (GBS) center in Hyderabad to a newly constructed facility (Link)​
• June 18: Darling Ingredients announces pricing of €750mm 4.5% senior notes due 2032 (Link)​
• June 18: Ingredion and Univar Solutions expand functional food and beverage ingredients partnership to Benelux region (Link)​
• June 12: Bühler opens its new Puffing Application Center in Uzwil, Switzerland (Link)​
• June 11: Bühler opens a state-of-the-art Milling Academy, a 1,800-square-meter training center, in Uzwil, Switzerland (Link)​
• June 2: Cal-Maine Foods announces the closing of its acquisition of Echo Lake Foods (Link)​
• June 2: Ingredion and Agrana JV obtains clearance for the transaction from all applicable international regulatory authorities (Link)​​

Technology​

• June 16: Javelot, a European based company specializing in post-harvest grain technology solutions, expands into U.S. market (Link)​
• June 12: CNH Industrial Introduces new AI-powered sprayer sensing to identify weeds and apply herbicides precisely (Link)​
• June 5: Cargill announces to invest nearly $90 million in automation and new technologies at its Fort Morgan, Colo. beef plant (Link)​​