In Focus – US Elections and trade policy: What’s at stake for the US and Canada?

The In Focus report examines the impact of recent immigration target changes on Canadian potential growth, and whether slower population growth could become a headwind to the expected acceleration in economic activity in 2025.

The lead up to major events typically entails a rise in uncertainty, and the event itself then resolves that uncertainty one way or another. But for the upcoming US election, the only certainty is that there could be at least as much uncertainty the morning after we know the winner.

The good news is that Canadian monetary policy is now on a decisive easing path, one that should allow a return to full employment by 2026. Three cheers for that. But forgive us if we do a little Monday morning quarterbacking, by exploring whether, with the benefit of hindsight, all of the economic pain inflicted by high interest rates, in the battle to wrestle inflation back to 2%, was actually necessary.

The role of the private sector in supporting economic reconciliation.

Our latest In Focus article discusses the potential role of modular housing in easing the housing affordability issue in Canada.

Markets have thrown down their 50 basis point chip on the poker table, betting that the Bank of Canada will deliver an interest rate cut of that magnitude next week. But will the central bankers call that bet, or raise to 75?

What do the latest inflation numbers mean for the path of rate reduction? CIBC Senior Economist Andrew Grantham gives us his insights.