Reciprocal tariffs: No news is good news for Canada (sort of)

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Reciprocal tariffs: No news is good news for Canada (sort of) 

No news was good news for Canada, but only relative to what some may have feared. We avoided being listed among countries subjected to new “reciprocal” tariffs announced by President Trump but that still leaves previously announced tariffs on autos, steel, aluminum and lumber, alongside the 25% fentanyl-related tariffs intact for non-USMCA compliant goods. However, if USMCA compliance has improved, meaning exemptions from the latter will have risen, the weighted average tariff paid by Canada could potentially be lower than the 10% baseline reciprocal tariff imposed on other countries today. In a world of full compliance where all US bound exports meet the USMCA criteria, we estimate the weighted average effective tariff could be around 5% or less based on the sectoral-tariffs alone. That’s at least a silver lining among the tariff-driven storm clouds that have been forming over the Canadian and global economies this year.

Read the detailed report below. 

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