Author archives

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the show discussing the spate of U.S. jobs data last week. Ian discusses the internals of the JOLTS and NFP reports, noting the trend for U.S. labour demand is a negative one. Jeremy opines on his view on the election, and how the best opportunities are to fade recent flattening in the U.S. curve. They take some time to discuss the BoC, noting that recent data provides no confidence the Bank will slow down the cycle anytime soon. Ian outlines his view for a steeper swap-spread curve while Jeremy paints a picture of a flatter one. The pair spend some time talking about the specific tenors of the spread curve, and end the show outlining their favorite trades for the week ahead.

Ian is joined by two guests this week, Paul Beaudry (Professor of Economics at UBC and Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada) and Ali Jaffery from CIBC Economics. The episode begins with Paul giving his view on the 50.0bps cut from FOMC, and what the most recent strong NFP means for the November meeting (hint: 25.0bps not 50.0bps). In contrast, when thinking about the Bank of Canada, Paul outlines his views that the preconditions for getting administered rates to a much lower are setting have been met for Canada, and provides his views for the October meeting (hint: 50.0bps, not 25.0bps). Ian discusses the need for a smaller balance sheet, while Ali gives an update on what higher energy prices mean for the BoC reaction function.

Ian is joined this week by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics. The duo begin the episode by taking stock of the intense market volatility seen over the past week, and whether what triggered the moved has a real fundamental basis. Ali discusses the other pockets of strength in the U.S. economy, concluding that the U.S is slowing but not enough to warrant non-standard sized cuts, like 50.0bps. Ian discusses the triggering of the Sahm rule within the context of Okuns Law, and Ali spends time talking about the underlying dynamics of the U.S. labour market. Ian and Ali go back-and-forth on what a faster Fed means for the Bank of Canada, ultimately landing on the view that the Bank can slow down if the Fed is speeding up. Ian finishes the episode discussing his favorite trades, and the implication of what a faster Bank does to 5yr yields, and thus 5yr mortgage rates.

Ian is joined this week by CIBC Capital Markets’ Brenden Donaher, Executive Director from the Short Term Interest Rate Trading (STIRT) desk. The show begins with Ian highlighting the three key takeaways from the Bank of Canada rate decision last week. The Bank sounds more dovish and that raises the risk of an easing cycle which takes policy rates below neutral. Brenden provides his view on current expectations from the BoC rate path, comparing and contrasting the distribution to the United States, United Kingdom and Australia. The duo discuss what has worked and what hasn’t across the cross-currency curve, and why expectations of BA cessation never materialized in stronger short-end cross-currency pricing. Brenden gives his view on recent BoC actions to contain CORRA, and the pair give an overview of their expectations on the central bank meetings this week and how best to trade them.

Ian is joined this week by CIBC’s Senior Economist, Ali Jaffery, and the focal point of the episode is to preview the upcoming Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Ali begins the episode outlining his view on forecast changes, and the likelihood that the Bank shifts from outcome-based guidance to forward-guidance. Ian talks about current market pricing for the BoC relative to the Fed, highlighting why he thinks there is too little priced in mid-2025. The pair do a deep dive on the impact of a 2025 trade war, specifically what it means for global growth and central bank responses. The episode finishes with Ian discussing reasons behind recent CORRA dislocations, and the need for a change in how QT is being managed.

Ian Pollick is joined by Nicholas Neary this week, Managing Director at DV Group. The duo begin the episode by discussing the Bank of Canada interest rate cut, and what the near-term market implications are. Nicholas highlights his view on the threshold for policy divergence, which is considerably larger than most analyst estimates. The pair go on to discuss whether duration markets are safe, and what that means for the likely shape of the term structure. Ian talks about what is needed for the yield curve to sustainably steepen, while also discussing whether interest rate relief is really on the way for key borrowing rates in the economy. Nicholas provides his view on HQLA product, and why the provincial bond curve looks the way it does. The show completes with the pair talking about their favorite trades over the next two months.

This past week demonstrated the largest amount of macro divergence over the past several years, with one major central bank hiking rates while another cut, at the same time the Fed straddles a dovish and hawkish message. This week, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics, and the duo begin the episode by discussing these events. Ali makes the case that the macro story across developed markets is still linear, and monetary policy is moving to an easing cycle. But how deep that easing cycle will be is the ultimate question, and what it means for the bond market is what Ian tries to unravel. Ian discusses his view on the yield curve, suggesting that a lack of tradeoff between inflation and growth leads to higher longer-term yields for any given level of the overnight rate. Ian goes as far as to call the time of death of the flattener, noting we have firmly moved into a trend steepening cycle. The duo discuss the recent BoC speech on balance sheet normalization, and end the episode opining on the recent BoC Survey of Deliberations and what that means for the timing of the first cut.

Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham this week, and the show begins by discussing why the Canadian economy appears to be growing much faster in Q4 compared to BoC expectations. The impact of previous supply-side restrictions, like the tragic wildfires in 2023 and the port strikes, are starting to filter through the data. This means Canada is seeing low-hanging fruit on the supply side of the economy, which should not have a big impact on inflation. The duo also discuss recent labour market trends in North America, and why conditions look to be less strong under-the-hood. Ian gives an update on CORRA and the eventual QT cessation announcement, focusing on the recent announcement that the Bank will discuss balance sheet normalization at an upcoming speech. The pair tie everything together and discuss the policy path priced by the market, and why it feels too ‘light’ given all the risks in the economy.

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders and the duo begin the show discussing recent central bank decisions. With four major central banks abandoning their tightening bias, the data has undermined the market reaction by showing a stronger underlying economy. Jeremy talks about the problem with short-end pricing in Canada versus the United States, while Ian shows why US and Canadian inflation is more comparable than meets the eye. Jeremy provides his view on the latest Treasury refunding announcement and the implications on QT, while Ian discusses why recent BoC measures to bring CORRA back to target won’t work. The duo spend some time opining on the path of swap spreads, and have a friendly disagreement on whether the belly is cheap or rich in Canada.

Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the show begins with a lookback at the Bank of Canada rate decision this week. Ian walks through the material differences between the statement and the updated forecasts, painting a more dovish outright picture. After talking through the most likely paths for the BoC, the duo discuss which asset class is likely to provide better total returns in 2024, rates versus credit. Josh discusses why credit is turning into a defensive asset class and why it is attractive at current levels, while Ian discusses the relative supply outlook to government bonds. The show finishes with both talking about their favorite trade ideas for the next few weeks.

Ian is joined by Craig Bell this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent cheapening of the cash market relative to swaps. Craig discusses the specific factors in the cash market impacting relative valuations, while Ian provides an update on the fair-value estimates from his swap spread modeling work. The elephant in the room is the Canadian long-end, and the richness of 10s30s and cross market. Ian and Craig spend time discussing how we got here and, what needs to happen for this richness to be remediated. Craig and Ian discuss the upcoming Bank of Canada rate decision, and get into a friendly disagreement about the proximate trigger of rate cuts in 2024.

Ian is joined this week by Mike Larson, and the duo kick off the episode by discussing the elephant in the room – the level of interest rates. Ian discusses the mechanics behind the ungluing of global long-end interest rates, while Mike gives his view on swap spreads. The pair talk about why the level of swap spreads should continue to decline, especially given how much 10yr Canadian rates have underperformed the United States recently. Ian gives his view on the absurdity of trading the ‘higher for longer’ and the ‘soft landing’ narrative at the same time. The show finishes with Ian and Mike outlining their favorite trades and which positions are the most crowded.

CIBC Perspectives focuses on timely discussions with experts sharing thoughts on current events, themes, and latest trends shaping the global markets and the business environment.

Ian is joined this week by Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC. The duo begin the episode discussing the most recent North American jobs reports, with Avery highlighting why the Fed hasn’t yet done enough to cool the hot jobs market. Ian outlines the reasons not to get too wrapped-up in Canada’s recent wage gains, while Avery provides his view on the recent increase in the Unemployment Rate. The pair spend some time discussing the outlook for monetary policy, concluding that September is still very much in play for the Bank of Canada despite a string of weaker-than-expected activity data. The show finishes with Ian discussing the recent volatility in global long-bonds.

Markets sometimes invite complacency, but avoiding this is critical in hedging best practices. Host Keith Rofrano is joined by guests Ian Pollick and Bipan Rai, who discuss the current interest rate and foreign exchange environment and how Middle Market companies should interpret it.

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent bond market selloff. They reach an interesting conclusion early in the episode, highlighting that the ‘way’ in which the market is repricing has not been seen in all of 2023. Ian believes the market is pricing-in more inflation and lower growth in longer-dated yields, which Jeremy suggests is a function of where we are in the cycle. Jeremy discusses his view on the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting, while discussing the ‘big’ global macro themes and what they mean to the bond market and swap spreads. Ian finishes the episode by opining on recent data from the labour market, and highlights his favorite trades for the week ahead.