Author archives

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the show discussing the spate of U.S. jobs data last week. Ian discusses the internals of the JOLTS and NFP reports, noting the trend for U.S. labour demand is a negative one. Jeremy opines on his view on the election, and how the best opportunities are to fade recent flattening in the U.S. curve. They take some time to discuss the BoC, noting that recent data provides no confidence the Bank will slow down the cycle anytime soon. Ian outlines his view for a steeper swap-spread curve while Jeremy paints a picture of a flatter one. The pair spend some time talking about the specific tenors of the spread curve, and end the show outlining their favorite trades for the week ahead.

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders and the duo begin the show discussing recent central bank decisions. With four major central banks abandoning their tightening bias, the data has undermined the market reaction by showing a stronger underlying economy. Jeremy talks about the problem with short-end pricing in Canada versus the United States, while Ian shows why US and Canadian inflation is more comparable than meets the eye. Jeremy provides his view on the latest Treasury refunding announcement and the implications on QT, while Ian discusses why recent BoC measures to bring CORRA back to target won’t work. The duo spend some time opining on the path of swap spreads, and have a friendly disagreement on whether the belly is cheap or rich in Canada.

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent bond market selloff. They reach an interesting conclusion early in the episode, highlighting that the ‘way’ in which the market is repricing has not been seen in all of 2023. Ian believes the market is pricing-in more inflation and lower growth in longer-dated yields, which Jeremy suggests is a function of where we are in the cycle. Jeremy discusses his view on the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting, while discussing the ‘big’ global macro themes and what they mean to the bond market and swap spreads. Ian finishes the episode by opining on recent data from the labour market, and highlights his favorite trades for the week ahead.

Ian and Jeremy begin the episode by discussing the FOMC meeting from last week. Jeremy spends some time dissecting the disinflationary narrative used by Chairman Powell, while Ian discusses the extremely strong data which came out after the meeting. The duo do a victory lap as many of the trading themes discussed in the prior episode ended up working quite well, and the co-hosts discuss the driving forces of markets in an otherwise quiet week ahead. Ian discusses why the front-end of Canada remains very vulnerable to a repricing higher, while in the balance of the show the pair discuss why easing is priced the way it is for 2024 and what that means for long rates.

The first CYE episode of 2023 sees Ian joined by Jeremy Saunders, and the conversation starts with a discussion on global macro shifts. Stronger global growth outside the United States is an unexpected development, and the duo discuss what it means for global bond yields. Jeremy asks why the BoC spent so much optionality so early into the year, while Ian talks about the market implications of a conditional pause. The duo agree that spreads look toppy, though they disagree on whether or not market pricing for eases can realistically move from 2023 to 2024. The episode ends with both Ian and Jeremy speaking about their favorite near-term trades

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the Bank of Canada rate decision this past week. Jeremy discusses his view on terminal rates becoming more ‘bounded’, while Ian introduces the concept of a higher lower bound. Both have profound implications for the shape of the yield curve compared to prior cycles. The hosts take some time to walk through what trades worked well for them recently, and discuss the outlook for 5yr swap spreads. The pair finish the show by talking about why the Canadian dollar might just be the biggest swing factor when it comes a higher Canadian terminal rate.

Ian is joined this week by Jeremy Saunders, and the duo start the episode by looking at the shape of the Canada and U.S. yield curves relative to what is priced for monetary policy in each region. Ian discusses why he views the recent bond market rally to be technical, while Jeremy provides his take on why it has been more fundamentally based. Over the balance of the episode the team discuss the outlook for swap spreads, the inflection point for a Fed pivot, and why CDOR cessation should a much less uncertain transition compared to the U.S. experience with LIBOR.

Ian is joined this week by Jeremy Saunders from CIBCs XVA trading group. The duo kick-off the episode by discussing the Bank of Canada and Fed meeting this week, looking at the primary reasons why the Bank decided to delay the first hike until March. Jeremy discusses the importance of preserving forward guidance as a policy tool, and contrasts the messaging between the two post-meeting press conferences. Ian provides his view on the BoC balance sheet, and unveils the firms new central bank and interest rate forecasts. Jeremy throws cold water on the short 2yr swap spread narrative, and provides his favorite trades for the next few weeks. The pair finish the episode by looking at the difference between terminal and neutral rates in North America, and discuss the implications for longer-term forward rates.