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Josh Kay
Managing Director, Global Markets
Podcast Series
Curve Your Enthusiasm

The Rates vs Credit Intergalactic Royal Rumble

Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the show begins with a lookback at the Bank of Canada rate decision this week. Ian walks through the material differences between the statement and the updated forecasts, painting a more dovish outright picture. After talking through the most likely paths for the BoC, the duo discuss which asset class is likely to provide better total returns in 2024, rates versus credit. Josh discusses why credit is turning into a defensive asset class and why it is attractive at current levels, while Ian discusses the relative supply outlook to government bonds. The show finishes with both talking about their favorite trade ideas for the next few weeks.
Podcasts
Podcast Series
Curve Your Enthusiasm

Outflows or opportunity?

Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the duo kick-off the episode discussing the Bank of Canada. With a 75 bps hike all but set in stone, the question is what should their next move be and should this matter given what is currently priced? Ian discusses his view on the ‘noncession/recession’ which will be challenging to trade, while Josh provides his view on what the move in rates means for credit markets. Josh discusses why credit outflows create opportunity for structural credit investors, and provides his view on sector trends in CAD IG. Ian finishes the show by given his outlook for rates and the curve.
Podcasts
Podcast Series
Curve Your Enthusiasm

The multiverse of credit & rates

Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the duo begin the episode talking about the benefits, and dangers, of a non-standard sized hike. Ian discusses the required trade off between a higher terminal rate and a faster pace of hikes and why the curve is currently ‘trapped’. Josh spends some time discussing how credit markets are reacting to higher interest rates, while also taking a look back at recent Canadian credit performance. The pair finish the episode talking about portfolio construction and whether or not credit spreads have already reached the lows for the year.
Podcasts