Economics

Are the official population growth forecasts too low? CIBC Deputy Economist, Benjamin Tal, shares his analysis.

The astronomical tariffs that the US put into effect presented a clear and present danger of a global recession, so most investors saw plenty of reason for Canada’s central bank to provide further rate relief. But then those same investors decided that Trump’s decision to “pause” those tariffs at 10% will bring a matching pause in rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, provides a deeper analysis of this and outlook for the Canadian and US markets in the Week Ahead report below.  

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the co-hosts begin the show discussing the manic week that was. There was not a lot of visibility to the moves in bond and equity markets over the prior few sessions, and Jeremy discusses his view on what was real and what was myth. Ian spends some time talking about the lack of evidence to support a few of the theories that markets are thinking about. The duo spend time talking about the level of interest rates going forward, disagreeing on the most likely direction of longer-term interest rates over the coming weeks. Ian provides his view on what the Bank of Canada is likely to do at their meeting next week, while Jeremy gives an update on his Fed views. The show completes with Ian and Jeremy discussing their favourite expressions of macro themes in the bond market.

How will recent tariff announcements impact the Canadian and global economic outlook? CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, offers his perspective.

Risk off yet again, with rates continuing to selloff in the US and globally. There are increasing signs of capital flight from the US given US rates, equities, and the USD are all selling off in tandem.

The global trading system has been sitting on eggshells since the US election in November, and now, like Humpty Dumpty, it’s had a great fall. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, examines the reaction of the equity market in recent days and implications for the global economy going forward.

CIBC economists provide their analysis of the reciprocal tariffs by President Trump and what this means for the Bank of Canada and the Canadian economy.

Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s Deputy Chief Economist, joins Katherine Judge, CIBC Senior Economist, to discuss the deteriorating US economic backdrop, the trade landscape, and implications for the Fed and the Bank of Canada.

Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, hosted a virtual update on the rapidly evolving interest rate market and the implications for clients in the Real Estate space.

Time is not on Trump’s side. CIBC Economists examine the fragility of the US economy amidst rising tariff uncertainty in the latest In Focus report.

As the US is set to execute on the automotive products tariff next week, CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares his perspectives on how Canada should respond to the incoming tariffs.

Risk on once again, with European equities outperforming and European yields selling off.

Risk on this morning, with US equities and industrial metals higher, and global rates selling off, after reports that April 2nd tariffs could be more targeted and less broad based.

Negotiating a cooling in tariff levels will be easier for Canada if the misery is shared by other countries facing new US tariffs. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares his perspective on the odds of negotiating tariffs down to a manageable size in this Week Ahead report.

Central bank actions or comments continue to dominate into the current session.

Jay Powell's crystal ball is just as fuzzy as everyone else's with the FOMC electing to keep the rate path unchanged.

It’s going to be an extremely USD-centric day ahead of the FOMC meeting.

We expect a very active session for EUR/USD today given i) the Bundestag vote on debt brake reform (around 8:30 am EST), ii) the Trump/Putin call around 9:00am-11:00am this morning, and iii) re-escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC’s Chief Economist, and Ali Jaffery, CIBC Senior Economist, discuss their recent report on reducing Canadian internal trade barriers, and explain their skepticism on the size of benefits to the economy.

US equities have continued to broadly underperform global equities, as Treasury Secretary Bessent said he’s not worried about the markets and that corrections are healthy.