Economics

For various reasons, real GDP growth, commodity prices, consumer sentiments and other economic data in the first half of this year will be muddied. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, provides some hints on how to interpret them.

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC’s Chief Economist, and Andrew Grantham, CIBC Senior Economist, look at why a tariff-driven, broad rebound in the factory share of US employment might not be a worthy policy goal.

With a Liberal win in the Canadian elections, Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, analyses the first order of business for Prime Minister Carney and what to watch for in the coming months.

Global equities are mixed with Europe outperforming and US underperforming.

How US tariffs impact key export sectors like autos, metals, and lumber, and how supply chains get shaken as the ground shifts under the global trading system, should have implications for what types of relief measures are warranted in Canada.

The latest In Focus report by CIBC Economists questions whether the US should even be trying to reallocate more of its employment towards manufacturing.

It was a less than remarkable overnight session in FX markets, with the DXY near unchanged currently at 99.465 (+0.09%).

The past two weeks have seen an extremely stormy Treasuries market, but only one of two swings that largely offset each other generated a flood of “end of the world as we know it” commentaries.

The Bank of Canada decided today to keep its interest rate on hold at 2.75%, rather than delivering a further interest rate cut. CIBC Senior Economist Andrew Grantham offers his perspective.

The Bank of Canada opted to stand pat with the policy rate remaining at 2.75%, rather than continue on its prior easing path, but this was clearly a decision based on a lack of information rather than a definitive signal that rate cuts are done.

The greenback starts the session slightly weaker with the biggest beneficiary being the Swiss (USD/CHF -0.85% now at 0.8165) and the Euro (EUR/USD +0.78% now at 1.1371).

Markets are relatively calm into the upcoming session with very little event risk on the horizon (at least foreseeable event risk).

Risk assets are bouncing given news of the electronics tariff exemption. Global rates are generally lower with the US front end outperforming.

Are the official population growth forecasts too low? CIBC Deputy Economist, Benjamin Tal, shares his analysis.

The astronomical tariffs that the US put into effect presented a clear and present danger of a global recession, so most investors saw plenty of reason for Canada’s central bank to provide further rate relief. But then those same investors decided that Trump’s decision to “pause” those tariffs at 10% will bring a matching pause in rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, provides a deeper analysis of this and outlook for the Canadian and US markets in the Week Ahead report below.  

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the co-hosts begin the show discussing the manic week that was. There was not a lot of visibility to the moves in bond and equity markets over the prior few sessions, and Jeremy discusses his view on what was real and what was myth. Ian spends some time talking about the lack of evidence to support a few of the theories that markets are thinking about. The duo spend time talking about the level of interest rates going forward, disagreeing on the most likely direction of longer-term interest rates over the coming weeks. Ian provides his view on what the Bank of Canada is likely to do at their meeting next week, while Jeremy gives an update on his Fed views. The show completes with Ian and Jeremy discussing their favourite expressions of macro themes in the bond market.

How will recent tariff announcements impact the Canadian and global economic outlook? CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, offers his perspective.

Risk off yet again, with rates continuing to selloff in the US and globally. There are increasing signs of capital flight from the US given US rates, equities, and the USD are all selling off in tandem.

The global trading system has been sitting on eggshells since the US election in November, and now, like Humpty Dumpty, it’s had a great fall. Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, examines the reaction of the equity market in recent days and implications for the global economy going forward.

CIBC economists provide their analysis of the reciprocal tariffs by President Trump and what this means for the Bank of Canada and the Canadian economy.