Reflection on office building glass windows with curve lines
Curve Your EnthusiasmEpisode 84
28 min

A very stable disequilibrium

In this episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Ian is joined by Brendan Donaher, Executive Director STIRT trading. The show begins by discussing the recent U.S. jobs report, and the implications to the perception of economic data going forward and how that should affect the bond market. Brenden discusses how FOMC pricing has evolved, and his favorite trades. The duo begin to discuss what Fed pricing means for BoC pricing, rightly noting how cheap CAD front-end valuations are. Brenden provides his view on what pension hedging means for Canadian cross-currency basis swaps, while also highlighting key themes in global funding markets. The show ends with a discussion on the BoC’s balance sheet, and which trades Ian and Brenden think offer the most attractive opportunities at present.

Brenden DonaherIan Pollick
Featured in this episode:

Brenden Donaher, Ian Pollick

Curve Your EnthusiasmEpisode 83
24 min

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the co-hosts begin the show discussing the manic week that was. There was not a lot of visibility to the moves in bond and equity markets over the prior few sessions, and Jeremy discusses his view on what was real and what was myth. Ian spends some time talking about the lack of evidence to support a few of the theories that markets are thinking about. The duo spend time talking about the level of interest rates going forward, disagreeing on the most likely direction of longer-term interest rates over the coming weeks. Ian provides his view on what the Bank of Canada is likely to do at their meeting next week, while Jeremy gives an update on his Fed views. The show completes with Ian and Jeremy discussing their favourite expressions of macro themes in the bond market.

Ian PollickJeremy Saunders
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders

Curve Your EnthusiasmEpisode 82
34 min

Excess hot potatoes

In the first episode of 2025, Ian is joined by Aaron Carter from the financing desk to discuss recent adjustments in the short-end. The show begins with the duo discussing the importance of the Bank of Canada’s move to change the way monetary policy is implemented, namely moving back into a corridor system. Aaron gives his ‘big picture’ view on why this is a real game-changer for CORRA, and his expectations around the evolution of the spread to the target rate. Ian takes time discussing the various administered rates in the Canadian short-end and how to think about the subset of arbitrage opportunities. Aaron finishes the episode by describing the incoming tri-party repo system and how that will interact with monetary policy going forward.

Ian PollickAaron Carter
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Aaron Carter

Curve Your EnthusiasmEpisode 81
41 min

A conversation with Stephen Poloz

In a very special edition of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Stephen Poloz joins Ian as co-host for this week’s episode. The show begins by talking about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and what potential trade uncertainty means for the Canadian economy and monetary policy. Stephen spends time talking about the structural underperformance of the Canadian economy relative to other OECD countries, and provides some suggestions on how it could be fixed. The duo discuss R*, and why the actual neutral rate is not moving as fast as markets may think. In the balance of the episode, the duo discusses the impact of higher longer-term interest rates on monetary policy, the role of a flexible exchange rate and, how much the BoC can diverge from the Fed. The show finishes with a discussion on Stephen’s new mandate with Canadian pension plans.

Ian PollickStephen Poloz
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Stephen Poloz

Curve Your EnthusiasmEpisode 80
27 min

The reflexivity doom loop

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the show discussing the spate of U.S. jobs data last week. Ian discusses the internals of the JOLTS and NFP reports, noting the trend for U.S. labour demand is a negative one. Jeremy opines on his view on the election, and how the best opportunities are to fade recent flattening in the U.S. curve. They take some time to discuss the BoC, noting that recent data provides no confidence the Bank will slow down the cycle anytime soon. Ian outlines his view for a steeper swap-spread curve while Jeremy paints a picture of a flatter one. The pair spend some time talking about the specific tenors of the spread curve, and end the show outlining their favorite trades for the week ahead.

Ian PollickJeremy Saunders
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders

Curve Your EnthusiasmEpisode 79
32 min

This is a really good episode

Ian is joined by two guests this week, Paul Beaudry (Professor of Economics at UBC and Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada) and Ali Jaffery from CIBC Economics. The episode begins with Paul giving his view on the 50.0bps cut from FOMC, and what the most recent strong NFP means for the November meeting (hint: 25.0bps not 50.0bps). In contrast, when thinking about the Bank of Canada, Paul outlines his views that the preconditions for getting administered rates to a much lower are setting have been met for Canada, and provides his views for the October meeting (hint: 50.0bps, not 25.0bps). Ian discusses the need for a smaller balance sheet, while Ali gives an update on what higher energy prices mean for the BoC reaction function.

Ian PollickAli JafferyPaul Beaudry
Featured in this episode:

Ian Pollick, Ali Jaffery, Paul Beaudry