The opportunities for Canada’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry

Lisa Raitt: Thank you for tuning in to The Raitt Stuff. I’m your host, Lisa Raitt. And in this podcast, I’m going to share insights on current hot topics in the areas of public policy, politics and business with some guests along the way. Welcome back to The Raitt Stuff. So here we are in the dog days of summer and we’re picking up on a topic that is one of my favourite topics and it has to do with what we see as an important transition fuel for the future in Canada, and that is liquefied natural gas or LNG. There’s been a couple of developments I’d say in the space in the past number of weeks, and I was really lucky to be able to get Shannon Joseph, who’s the Chair at Energy for a Secure Future, to come on and speak with us a little bit about what’s going on in the LNG space in Canada and perhaps what she sees happening for the future. So welcome back, Shannon, to the podcast.

Shannon Joseph: Thank you so much for having me.

Lisa Raitt: Now it’s a great pleasure. First of all, back in June, Energy for a Secure Future published a paper and it basically set out the business case for LNG in Canada. Can you walk me through a little bit about what is the business case for LNG in Canada?

Shannon Joseph: Sure. And what I’d add to that, it’s not just a business case. We really wanted to convey an environmental case, a geopolitical security case, a reconciliation case, which draws from our first report and of course, the economic case that, you know, there’s a broad value proposition to us getting LNG out to the world. And, you know, the paper looks at the growing demand for LNG globally. Since 2000, global natural gas demand and consumption has grown by 68%. Demand continues to grow. Since the crisis in Europe started, the United States has more than doubled their exports, and Canada has a little bit been slow to the race. We’ve started to get some good things happening. LNG Canada is obviously under construction. Cedar LNG got its environmental approvals and other projects are kind of coming up in the wings. So that’s all positive. I’d say, you know, on the environmental front, a big emphasis is that LNG could help displace higher emitting fuels globally and that this is really important because 48% of the GHG emissions on planet Earth today are caused by the burning of coal for electricity. And just to give a sense of scale on that, between 2020 and 2022, according to the Global Energy Monitor, there was 130GW of new coal fired power plants coming online in Asia, and Canada’s total electricity production is 149GW. So almost the entire Canadian electricity worth of coal was coming online. And that’s in an area where coal is over 50% of the electricity to begin with. And so if we want to make a dent in this issue, we need to get them a fuel that can allow them to have the energy reliability and affordability characteristics they need, but has half the emissions.

Lisa Raitt: So I just want to revisit that statistic again, because I think it’s important for the concept. 48% of the world’s emissions are from coal for firing electricity.

Shannon Joseph: That’s right.

Lisa Raitt: And China, Asia just brought on new power plants that total the entire electrical output of Canada that are all fired by coal in the last two years.

Shannon Joseph: That is right. That is right.

Lisa Raitt: Okay. So it’s really important for our world that we do as much as we possibly can to give some countries a better alternative than burning coal.

Shannon Joseph: Absolutely. Because, you know, those countries are also involved in the Paris Agreement, etcetera. But they’re you know, if you’re a country like India, you still have a lot of people who don’t have energy security, period. And so the first thing you’re trying to do is get people reliable energy. And the second thing you’re trying to do is get your businesses energy to create jobs for all these people and to raise standards of living. They’re trying to solve a range of challenges, at the same time, in addition to emissions. And since the conflict in Europe, and this is in the paper as well and looks at some of those geopolitical issues, Russia’s gas has become discounted in international markets because Europe has kind of put sanctions against it. But in the context of those sanctions, India and China have increased their consumption of Russian gas and Russian oil. And so Russian oil has gone up 40% and 20% respectively in terms of demand in India and China. And they both buy gas. And if you talk to Prime Minister Modi in India was famously quoted as saying, I have a moral responsibility to make sure I have this energy for my population. And so what can Canada do to strengthen our relationships in that region as opposed to Vladimir Putin’s strengthening his relationships in that region? And energy is a huge card for us to do that. And we need to be thinking about the importance of that alongside the importance of the emissions solution that LNG offers.

Lisa Raitt: Right. And the United States is a larger producer of LNG than us. So they’re in this space already, but they also make sure that they are energy self-sufficient too, first.

Shannon Joseph: That is correct. And you know, it’s often talked about that Canada and the United States kind of started off in the same place in 2015. And now they have eight LNG export facilities and are building more. And we have one under construction. And so, you know, it’s not too late for us to kind of build out our capacity and get into the game in this way. But because the United States has built that capacity before this crisis, they have been able to ramp up and meet global needs. Canada provides about 7% of the gas that they are putting into their system, exporting to the world. That’s a positive relationship we have with there, and it’s a way we’re contributing to that international security peace. But there’s so much more we could do once we build out our own capacity. And what’s exciting in Canada is that all of our major LNG projects have either Indigenous major partnership or majority ownership. And that’s exciting too, because of reconciliation prospects and something we point to in the report as well.

Lisa Raitt: Yeah, and let’s talk about that. So there are three Canadian LNG projects on the West Coast that are really important from an emissions intensity perspective. It’s LNG Canada that you already referenced that is being built right now. There’s Ceder LNG, which you referenced as well, and Woodfibre LNG. All three of those have significant Indigenous ownership involved.

Shannon Joseph: That’s correct. So Woodfibre has an important partnership with the Squamish Nation and Squamish also did their environmental review. That was new. But it’s a sign of kind of the evolution of things and the serious engagement. Cedar is majority owned by the Haisla Nation and their major partners in LNG Canada. And I would say another project that’s in the works is the Syllogisms Western LNG project further north on the B.C. coast, and that’s with the Nisga’a nation, and they were very much active at the LNG 2023 conference that just happened in Vancouver telling their story or their president, Eva Clayton was part of a press conference we did. It’s very exciting and I think you didn’t ask about the LNG conference, but that conference was so striking in the way that indigenous nations were not only kind of welcoming people to the event, as they often do at events in Canada, but they were also major leaders in LNG and were on the plenary stage talking about their projects and spotlight sessions. It’s very exciting.

Lisa Raitt: Totally is. And you know, organizations like the First Nations Major Projects Coalition and other coalitions that have come together around such as your own, such as the Energy for a Secure Future. I mean, these are really important places for dialogue to happen so that it’s not just Indigenous nations speaking, it’s indigenous nations speaking amongst the other stakeholders as well, because they’re one of the most important stakeholders in there. So I’m glad that you mentioned the conference, Shannon, because, you know, the LNG 2023 is a worldwide conference. It is a significant conference that attracts people and investors from all producing and consuming nations. And it was supposed to be in Russia this year actually, but Canada put its hand up and said, we’ll take it and we’ll have the conference out here in Vancouver. And it did have a very significant, I would say, indigenous component to it. And I was very proud to see our Indigenous nations taking the stage, quite frankly, and being the centrepoint. What were some of the other learnings coming from the LNG 2023?

Shannon Joseph: Yes, it was a fantastic event. Global participation, thousands of people. Some of the highlights for me included a diplomatic forum on the first day, the leadership dialogues on the first day. So you know, Jason Klein, who’s the CEO of LNG Canada, was part of the opening plenary, but so was Crystal Smith of the Haisla Nation. And before she went up, she said, I didn’t realize I was part of the, you know, on the main stage like this. And I said, Of course you are. It was just really, you know, a new face to LNG. And you know, we had these dialogues. That diplomatic forum was fantastic in that it had very good international participation. There were consular representation from multiple countries and kind of business representation from multiple countries, and everyone seemed to agree that, number one, LNG is important, gas is important. It’s going to remain important. It’s important because of its environmental characteristics, but also because of its affordability and other characteristics. And we as friend countries need to look at how do we understand each other’s needs and support each other. And I thought that was a really important message that had a lot of resonance. The conference talked about a lot of the innovation going on in the natural gas space to reduce emissions and create efficiency, and I think that was great for people to see and learn about. But certainly I think what was surprising for both kind of Canadian participants, but also international participants, was the kind of level of participation of indigenous nations in our projects, but also taking the stage, getting in front of the cameras for media, talking about their leadership and their desire for these projects to move forward.

Lisa Raitt: Yeah, and what it becomes is it’s a revenue stream that they’re going to be able to utilize in order to build the things that their communities need and want. And it’s as simple as that. And why shouldn’t they have every right to develop their land?

Shannon Joseph: Absolutely. And not just build the things even as important as that is and, you know, in terms of housing and everything else. But some of the most poignant comments I heard from leaders, it was, you know, around preservation of language and just having the resources to do these things that are important to them and with their own resources they do in their own way, and they’re already starting to see their fruits of that. So it’s an important thing. And again, I think it’s something everyone in Canada needs to know and understand about what’s going on in LNG in Canada.

Lisa Raitt: Yeah, makes sense. So that’s the past. Tell me a little bit about what you see upcoming in the space.

Shannon Joseph: Well, you know, I think that we still need to see things get going and so, I understand that, you know what Woodfibre is going to be starting construction in the fall. I think that’s really fantastic. And so yes, let’s see that move forward. There’s a lot of conversation and I was very excited to hear from Premier Smith that she and Premier Eby of British Columbia are working jointly on getting recognition for the environmental benefits of Canadian LNG internationally through the Article six mechanism. But I also think a recognition of that kind can maybe be established through bilateral arrangements with customer countries. But I think what’s important is that both the premiers of British Columbia and Alberta are working together to work with customer countries to find ways to get the environmental recognition and frameworks that they need so that they can move forward and be able to show how all of this fits together with the way Canada is working. This is what we’re doing on the global issue and this is how it fits with our domestic approach. And I think that’s great. And so, you know, into the future, I think Energy for a Secure Future is interested in finding ways to support that conversation. We’ve had a lot of engagement with the international community, with leaders from our advisory council, and, you know, we just want this to be really successful and are really excited about this collaboration.

Lisa Raitt: Excellent. Well, things certainly look bright and we’ve got lots of activity in the sector. And I want to thank you so much for agreeing to come back on here in the middle of the summer and let us know what’s going on in the LNG space in Canada.

Shannon Joseph: Well, thank you. Thank you very much for this opportunity. And what I will say as well for your listeners is that as we head into the fall, yes, we’re going to keep on the LNG issue, but we want to talk more and more about what does all of this mean for the way Canada approaches its own domestic energy systems and the transformation of those systems? What lessons can we learn? What’s the role of gas infrastructure, gas energy and how we deliver energy security and energy affordability and emissions reductions to Canadians? And so stay tuned for a paper we hope to put out in the Fall on this and kind of hopefully advancing a broader conversation in Canada on those issues.

Lisa Raitt: Well, I look forward to seeing the paper. Thanks so much for joining us today, Shannon.

Shannon Joseph: Thank you.

Lisa Raitt: Thanks so much for tuning in. Now, if you have any questions or comments or even requests on topics to discuss, drop me a line at lisa.raitt@cibc.com. Your interactions actually will make this better. I’m your host, Lisa Raitt, and this has been The Raitt Stuff.

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