#elxn44 – Perspectives from the Hon. James Moore

Lisa Raitt: Thank you for tuning in to the Raitt Stuff. I’m your host Lisa Raitt, former cabinet minister in Stephen Harper’s government from 2008 to 2015. I’m here now at CIBC Capital Markets and in this podcast, I’m going to share insights on current hot topics in the areas of public policy, politics and business with some guests along the way. Hi everybody, and welcome back to this week’s instalment of the Raitt Stuff. So here we are. We’re sitting on September seven. It’s about four point forty two pm Eastern Standard Time here in Ontario, and I always give you the time check just to make sure you understand where we are in the election cycle as we have these discussions because as you know, things are fluid and they’re moving quickly as we move towards September 20th E Day. We’ve covered the East with Premier Brian Gallant, and now we’re going to take a look at what’s going on in the West. And I’m so delighted that I have with us today, a former colleague of mine, the Honourable James Moore from British Columbia. You may know James from his time as minister of Canadian Heritage Minister of Industry. He was also the minister in charge of the Olympics in 2010. Now he’s a Denton’s in Vancouver. I believe that James is one of the smartest political strategists that I’ve met in my time. And he can share his perspective on what’s happening in British Columbia. Thank you, James, very much for showing up today. I really appreciate it.

James Moore: Way to kind more than happy to be here.

Lisa Raitt: From your point of view out in British Columbia, how is this election been? Before we started the call today, I said to you, the worst election ever and you said, no, there’s been worse elections. 

James Moore: Frankly, last year in the United States was a far worse election. It’s not even election so much as it was. It was a culture war in Canada. The people who are the most alike are the people who often fight the most. And sometimes that’s the case, right? That seems to be the case in this election. The difference is between the liberals and the Conservatives are not insubstantial, but I mean, it’s not as monumental as in the United States, where you have literally two people on either sides of a fence throwing stones at each other as to whether or not in fact even exists, whether you should build a wall, whether you should ban people from the United States because of their religion. So, so the stuff that we’re fighting over is maybe uninspiring and sometimes ugly, but it’s nothing compared to some of the ugliness we see elsewhere or even that we’ve seen in Canada in recent times. But where are we? I mean, look, we’re we’re right on the doorstep of the two big leaders debates that are going to come this week. We often talk about political campaigns as though they’re football games. You know this the first quarter, we’re at the half, we still have time to go. This campaign is really like actually a basketball game. You get to that. The second half of the fourth quarter, you got six or seven minutes left and it’s a ten point spread. Now you can sort of tune in and focus and see who’s got time outs left and whether or not everybody’s healthy and how many fouls they have. That’s kind of where we are. And that’s what this campaign is about. Today was the first day of school. Tomorrow is the first full day of school. You got the two leaders debates and then it’s basically a ten day sprint to the vote. And then it’ll be literally this coming weekend where the debates will be over and people will literally sit around the kitchen table or they’ll be talking to the neighbours across the yard say, Hey, by the way, how are you guys planning on voting on the election? And they’ll give an answer and they’ll say, Well, I kind of like this O’Tool guy. Or maybe I’m done with Trudeau and and it’ll reinforce people’s views and then we’ll go vote and it’ll be over. So it’s a sprint. And so therefore there’s no margin for error for anybody in the debates, and the apparatus of the political parties really has to deliver on the ground game in order to get this done, because we’re down to the ticky tacky dynamics of likely a minority government, either blue or red outcome. And so every single seat matters.

Lisa Raitt: Yeah. What do people care about in British Columbia? What are the issues that they’re talking about?

James Moore: The campaign started with forest fires in the interior and, of course, the hottest summer on record, with more than 50 straight days of no rain, which is, of course, macro rare. So that sort of puts climate change in those issues and the consequences of climate change and then the early debates about whether or not we should be having a campaign at all. I think the underlying substrates and the framing in British Columbia are not any different than they were before, which is COVID 19 and the recovery macro, short term. And then longer term, which is to say, 12 months. Twenty four months is just the cost of living. It’s certainly those are the issues in the battleground areas of the province. Context British Columbia, right? Three hundred and thirty eight seats in the federal parliament, one quarter of them are in Quebec, one third of them are in Ontario. Forty two out of three thirty eight are British Columbia. Of the forty two of the three thirty eight that are in British Columbia, 30 of them are not really contested. The other ones are and the other ones that are contested on different splits. So, for example, Vancouver Island has nine seats if memory serves. And in the provincial election, the NDP won all of them. In the provincial election, the NDP and the green vote combined is 80 percent of the vote. Vancouver Island is way out there, right? The NDP on Vancouver Island is the moderate vote, and the B.C. Liberal Party on Vancouver Island has sort of seen like the People’s Party is naturally like, that’s the sort of Vancouver Island. So that’s a different world. But. Where the swing seats are that will could have a balance of impact are actually where I’m sitting right here now in the Tri-Cities, the Lower Mainland, the north part of Surrey, Cloverdale, maybe one of the two North Shore Ridings. So, so all in those are sort of eight or so ridings that are going to be sort of the net plus or minus for liberals or conservatives, that could be the balance of power. So the dynamic in B.C. on the ground here, for example, where I am the writing of Port Moody Coquitlam, my riding went conservative in the last election on a thirty one – thirty – twenty nine three way split and the conservative won by one hundred votes. The riding next door was won by Ron McKinnon, who you served with. He won his riding by 400 votes on a three way split in these two ridings. So, so two up for the conservatives or the Liberals are two down. That’s a net swing of four, right? And neither of these two ridings did the Green Party have their organisational act together. So there’s no Green Party candidate on the ballot, but there is a People’s Party candidate in both ridings. That’s two ridings out of three point thirty eight. But if you look at the current polls where it’s likely or possibly probably a minority parliament, you start adding up each individual state. These dynamics on the ground in individual ridings are going to have real consequences.

Lisa Raitt: Yeah. James, I’m wondering in terms of when you talk about the numbers and you talk about People’s Party of Canada, are you seeing any protests in these swing ridings because we’re getting these in Ontario where large people showing up?

James Moore: Yeah, I mean, look, we have gone through probably the most frankly, forget about the health impacts of it. Set that aside, the economic impacts of it, the social impact of the government policy, forcing people to be separate from one another, to be separate from our families. The trauma of that people losing their high school years, losing like all this, the conversation, the epidemic and the crisis of loneliness that we have in our society, which has been much talked about but is not nearly talked about enough. You know, these things have been exacerbated and weaponized and traumatised. So it’s no wonder that you have pushback, right? I happen to believe in vaccine passports. I happen to believe in mandates in circumstances where it makes obvious sense. I think anti-vaxxers need to be confronted. But on a 30,000 foot analytical level, it’s no wonder that when you have this kind of trauma being imposed on people, rightfully or not, that you’re going to get some pushback and some blowback. So the People’s Party is the only party that is out there sort of talking about this overtly, however. I was in Victoria a couple of days ago. I was there for for a couple of days. And in downtown Victoria, right in front of the B.C. Legislature, there was a protest of anti-vaxxers saying My body, my choice and I can tell you the protesters that were there is about a hundred and fifty or so protesters. They were split and it was about 50 50 and half of them were hard line People’s Party people and the other half were Green Party people, right, who believe in surrendering to nature and don’t believe in big pharma. And so like, you know, the anti-vax pro conspiracy people out there who are against all these measures, they’re on the extremes of the hard left and the hard right on the hard right. It’s just anti government, all that stuff. And the hard left, it’s anti big pharma and government mandates and my body, my choice and sort of surrendering to nature kind of a mentality. But those voices are out there. And all told, it could be 10 percent of the vote in this election. So you talk about a campaign that’s, you know, thirty two point thirty two. Nationally, ten percent of people are going to vote and this is their dominant issue in one direction or another in the anti-vax direction. And then you have other people are going to be voting Pro Max in other direction. The vaccine issue is absolutely a major ballot driver for the outcome on voting day.

Lisa Raitt: So tell me a little bit about voter motivation. So I was talking to a pollster today here in Ontario, and he told me that I asked how big was the undecided bloc this time? And when was the undecideds.. when were they going to break? Which is our terminology for when everyone in Ontario decides how they’re going to vote on a weekend that you described at the beginning? He said there aren’t as many undecideds. The big question in this election is whether or not people show up to vote and conservatives are more motivated to vote this time than the Liberals are. Are you seeing any of that out in B.C.? What do you think about that?

James Moore: Yeah, I think that’s true. I mean, a good friend of mine is running in a riding out here, and she asked me, she said, this was the start of the campaign and I don’t think the needle has moved on this point. She said, you know, how do you think we’re going to do? And I said, well, in British Columbia, I said the NDP should be a little bit better because Jagmeet Singh is it’s his second go around and we’re all typically better the second time than the first. So there’s that there’s a bit of a John Horgan halo that might help the NDP. Justin Trudeau shouldn’t have more friends and be more popular now than he was before. I mean, just that’s just a linear fact of all politicians. And Erin O’Toole is more credible and should show better than Andrew Scheer. So a little bit better for the NDP, a little worse for the Liberals, a little bit better for the Conservatives. Net / net, I think you should be fine and that’s in the riding where we lost by 400 votes last time, so. So I think she was buoyed by that and I don’t think a lot has changed in that regard. The dynamics of this current wave of COVID and what the Delta variant means in terms of voter turnout and some lockdowns and masking and standing in line to mask and voting some B.C. of course, voter turnout went down seven percent election over election. But voting by mail and absentee ballots went up to thirty five percent, one in more than one in three people voted by absentee votes, so it could be that people conservatives who are really motivated to vote have already cast their ballots. You know, check the box, done their thing and those are being done. You know, this coming weekend and it’ll be kind of over. So, that impact again, you start adding in all these sort of tactical dynamics in the ground, People’s Party, Green Party, not being there in some ridings, you know, absentee ballots, lockdowns coming in and having to have a frankly, maybe a vaccine passport to get into some voting places and all these disruptions, these things are going to be consequential. But. Justin Trudeau continues to be the lightning rod that he is. And I think what the pollster who you’re talking about, what he’s sampling and discovering is something that I think most of us know instinctively, right? Which is Justin Trudeau is a person who’s who’s been in the public spotlight since he ran for federal office back in 2008. He’s just a very strong, like Donald Trump and like a lot of people who go into politics, he’s just a very overwhelming personality and you take him in and you decide pretty quickly and early whether you like him or don’t like him. A lot of people didn’t like him, still voted for him because they didn’t want Stephen Harper to get a fourth mandate, and they thought it was time for change. And then over time, you just frankly start burning through people. You know, a friend of mine, Steve Schmidt, says, you know, politics, if you hang around politics long enough, people tend to disappoint you. And when you’re in government for a long time with a majority mandate and a strong personality and you make big promises with breathy rhetoric and high expectations, and you start letting people down the letdown of Stephen Harper not quite delivering the tax cut that he was promising or not quite delivering on the F-35s or the CFA replacements and delaying that, that’s a bit of a disappointment. But when somebody, you know, pledges that he’s going to sort of end systemic racism and he’s going to forever change the course of the fight on climate change and, you know, build all of the water infrastructure for indigenous communities across the country. And you start disappointing on these kind of super emotive, emotional, personal things. That’s a deeper level of disappointment and distrust that gets dug there.

Lisa Raitt: Yeah. Well, I know it’s 42 seats out in British Columbia, which is small when you compare to the 50 that are here in the GTA. But there’s a lot to be said for the fact that this election is not going to be over until we see what happens in B.C. on September 20th, and we may not even know that night, quite frankly.

James Moore: Yeah, because the absentee ballots in some circumstances will take some time to to count in. And these are not insignificant seats and personalities, right? Jonathan Wilkinson in North Vancouver is in a fight. Carla Qualtrough, cabinet minister She’s in the fight. Harjit Sajjan is in a fight. Maybe a little bit safer. Jody Wilson-Raybould, as you know, leaving politics. Her seat is open, so a lot of people, cabinet ministers, lots of fights. It’ll be, you know, it’s battleground B.C..

Lisa Raitt: Ok, looking forward to watching it all. Really appreciate your insight into it today. It’s always a great pleasure to talk to you, James. Thanks so much.

James Moore: Thanks, Lisa.

Lisa Raitt: Just picking up on something from our previous interview with James Moore, it’s interesting to note that there may very well be two different tracks that the parties are on right now when it comes to where they are in an election. The Conservatives and Erin O’Toole clearly are trying to find votes, and they’re specifically trying to find votes in areas that have swing ridings. That’s Ontario and that’s mainland B.C.. So this weekend, you saw a lot of discussion about a perceived flip flop on what is being referred to as a gun ban. Now we can talk about what a gun ban is or isn’t, but certainly Erin O’Toole had a backtrack from something that was in his platform. Explain it and then make a promise that he was going to change his platform, and he did change his platform. When he made that decision, he was balancing how his sitting members of Parliament would feel about this, versus whether or not this was going to get him some votes in some of those very important ridings. And he made his decision. The Liberals, on the other hand, aren’t necessarily looking for votes right now. They definitely want to make sure that they’re protecting their votes against the NDP encroachment. But the most important thing they need to do is they need to motivate their voter to actually show up at the polls. Conservative voters who are not enamoured with Mr Trudeau, they’re going to show up and they’re going to make sure that they cast their vote. The question is whether or not the liberal voter or the progressive voter or the swing voter is motivated enough to show up and vote for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada. And that’s why you see the Liberal leader in his speeches being very defiant in body language, trying to give inspiration, type speeches, talking about fighting for people and fighting for Canada. Those are the kinds of words that are going to ignite his base and ensure that. They get out and vote. Now across Canada, there are going to be advanced polls this weekend and certainly that’s something that everyone is going to be looking at getting their ground game going for. And then after that, it’s just heading into the election on September 20th, doing their last minute adjustments to their ground game and bringing that vote home on September 20th. The two debates that are happening this week will be important, but they’re more important for Mr Singh and for Mr. O’Toole than they are for Mr. Trudeau in the terms of gathering votes. But for Mr. Trudeau, he has to make an impassioned plea to his voter to show up at the polls so that he can try to eke out a minority government as opposed to the majority that he started this whole process for. Thanks very much for joining us once again. I look forward to talking to you again next week.

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